Number of births

IBISWorld forecasts the number of births to decrease by 0.1% in 2024-25 to 286,300 births. The number of births is expected to dip in the current year, following concurrent falls over the two previous years. Volatile economic conditions have weighed on consumer sentiment. Negative consumer sentiment has incentivised many prospective parents to postpone having children until they're more confident about their financial situation and ability to provide for children. Border restrictions and negative net migration during the COVID-19 pandemic also weighed on the number of births. These conditions have been ongoing and have accumulated over several disruptive years, causing the deviation in the birth rate direction.

Fertility rates have fallen over recent years due to rising labour force participation and greater education about contraception. The fastest decline in fertility has been among young women, and the teenage fertility rate has slumped. The fertility rate has been below replacement level over the past five years, which represents the rate of births required for a mother to replace herself and her partner. According to the ABS, the replacement fertility rate is approximately 2.1 children per woman, with the current fertility rate trailing at 1.66. Consequently, much of Australia's population growth over the past few years has been due to migration.

Heightened economic pressures over the past few years have encouraged couples to delay having children. Cost-of-living concerns borne out of inflationary pressures and repeated cash rate hikes have eroded discretionary incomes in recent years. Long periods of negative consumer sentiment have also led parents to postpone having children until they are more optimistic about their financial situations. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of births per year to have fallen with an average annual fall rate of 0.9% over the five years through 2024-25.