Business Environment Profiles - Australia
Published: 29 August 2024
Value of merchandise trade exports
495 $ billion
5.3 %
This report analyses the value of Australia's exported merchandise. The data for this report is sourced from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and is measured in billions of current Australian dollars.
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IBISWorld forecasts the value of merchandise trade exports to fall by 7.6% in 2024-25, to an estimated $495.0 billion. This decline is driven largely by falling global commodity prices, especially for crucial export commodities like coal, natural gas, iron ore and wheat. Global energy and grain supply chains have largely recovered from the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, and prices are set to ease this year as a result. The value of the Australian dollar is also set to trend upwards, which will further erode export value. Export volumes of key mining and agricultural commodities like oil, wheat and barley are also set to decline during the year. However, demand for other commodities like copper, bauxite and beef are projected to rise, somewhat constraining the fall in merchandise trade export values.
Over the past five years, the value of merchandise trade exports has risen, driven by a beneficial global context and growth in domestic production volumes. Mining and agricultural commodities compose the bulk of Australian exports, which means that trends in these sectors dictate the value of merchandise trade exports in Australia. Global supply shocks, driven by a stretched global supply chain during the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, led to a surge in demand for Australian mining and agricultural exports. In particular, the value of wheat and LNG exports soared, as many countries scrambled to replace energy and agricultural commodities that were traditionally sourced from Russia or Ukraine. These limitations to global supplies drove up the price of commodity exports in Australia, especially for mining commodities like iron ore and coal, which account for a high proportion of export value.
Within the agriculture sector, many categories have exhibited strong export growth over recent years, buoyed by beneficial prices and record production. In terms of their proportionate contribution, wool, meat, pulses and broadacre crops have driven this growth. Heavy rainfall and bumper crops have contributed to consecutive years of record production volumes in key agricultural commodities. A combination of high prices and record production volumes caused a surge in the contribution of agricultural products to the value of merchandise trade exports. Export volumes have risen at a robust pace over the period, only dipping slightly in 2020-21 due to pandemic-related supply chain disruptions.
Despite domestic manufacturers generally lacking in export price competitiveness, export demand for Australian food and live animals has increased significantly over recent years. Exports of raw produce and manufactured food products have been boosted by the burgeoning Asian middle classes, particularly within China, as Australian products are often viewed as premium alternatives in these markets. Although trade tensions between Australia and China moderated this trend, especially for Australian wine exports. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the value of merchandise trade exports to increase at a compound annual rate of 5.3% over the five years through 2024-25.
IBISWorld forecasts the value of merchandise trade exports to decline 3.6% in 2025-26, to $477.1 ...
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