Business Environment Profiles - New Zealand
Published: 29 January 2025
Domestic price of meat
120 Index
2.4 %
This report analyses the price of meat in New Zealand and measures consumer prices for beef and veal, pig meat and mutton, lamb and hogget. Poultry meat is not included in this report. Data for this report is sourced from Statistics New Zealand (Tatauranga Aotearoa) and is presented in financial years, with a base year of 2016-17.
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IBISWorld expects the domestic price of meat to rise by 6.1% in 2024-25, to reach 119.5 index points. As New Zealand exports most of its meat, global supply and demand movements primarily impact meat prices. Domestic and global demand for beef in key export markets like China and the United States have been strong, yet the limited supply of New Zealand's beef has driven up prices of beef. While pork is less responsive to fluctuations in global market conditions, pork prices have also climbed due to elevated input costs and potential changes in pig farming practices. In contrast, the price of sheep meat has fallen with reduced domestic demand for sheep meats and the long-term decline in sheep numbers, which has been reducing supplies. New Zealand's sheep meat exports have also faced intensified competition from Australia, offering more affordable lamb. Overall, the domestic price of meat is expected to strengthen in 2024-25, resulting from increased beef, veal and pork prices.
Volatile weather conditions in New Zealand have restricted domestic supply over the past five years. This trend has compounded the effects of the Australian drought in the early part of the five-year period. However, increased rainfall from 2020-21 has encouraged Australian cattle farmers to reduce turnoff rates and focus on herd rebuilding, increasing supply pressures. Among producers, beef production has outstripped the production of lamb and pork. Despite the higher beef production, domestic consumer preferences for beef in particular and meat protein overall have waned. Rising health consciousness has resulted in the growing adoption of vegan and vegetarian diets. Nonetheless, international demand for New Zealand meat remains strong, with China meeting the bulk of this demand.
Domestic meat prices are heavily influenced by conditions in international markets. According to Beef + Lamb New Zealand, over 90% of beef and lamb produced in New Zealand is destined for export markets. China has become an increasingly important export market over the past five years, overtaking the United States in 2019-20. Increased urbanisation and incomes, in addition to the outbreak of ASF in 2018-19, have shifted Chinese consumer preferences to higher quality proteins like beef and sheep meat. This trend has accelerated demand for New Zealand meat products, draining supply while placing upwards pressure on domestic prices. New Zealand's strong regulations on livestock inspection and processing mean that its agricultural products are typically regarded as premium goods in export markets. The weakening of the New Zealand dollar has further supported export volumes. Overall, IBISWorld expects the domestic price of meat to increase at a compound annual rate of 2.4% over the five years through 2024-25.
The domestic price of meat is expected to edge upwards by 0.4% in 2025-26, to reach 119.9 index p...
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