Total mass of exports by sea

IBISWorld forecasts the total mass of exports by sea to increase by 1.6% in 2024-25, to reach 40.81 million metric tonnes. Forestry products, including logs, sawn timber and sleepers, wood pulp, panels and wood chips, represent New Zealand's largest export segment by mass. Processed wood production is recovering, which is set to support the export of forestry products. Growing foreign demand, on the back of rising health consciousness, particularly for dairy goods like milk and protein powders and horticultural produce like kiwifruit and apples, is anticipated to further raise the total mass of exports by sea in the current year.

The New Zealand dollar has depreciated over the past five years. While this has made domestic goods more price-competitive in international markets, global supply chain disruptions have seen the total mass of exports by sea decline over the past five years. Over the past few years, forestry products have accounted for more than half of the total mass of New Zealand's total exports by sea. Yet, the share of forestry products in the total exports by sea has decreased over the past five years, driving the decline in the total mass of exports by sea over the period. The volume of wood harvested fell sharply in 2019-20 due to government pandemic restrictions. While supply recovered in 2020-21, congested ports and other shipping delays weakened exports. Slowing demand from construction markets in China and South Korea has led to decreasing export volumes. Falling wool and lamb production over the period and a drop in milk production over the two years through 2022-23 have also limited exports.

New Zealand's key export markets include China, Australia, the US, Japan and South Korea. China has been New Zealand's top export market. Reduced shipments of key products, including forestry, wood and dairy products, from New Zealand to China, which has led the total mass of exports by sea to diminish over the past few years through the end of 2022-23. Fruit and seafood exports to China have remained resilient over the past few years thanks to solid demand. Tariffs on milk powder were removed in January 2024, which has helped the dairy sector improve dairy exports to China. New Zealand exports to the US have expanded continuously over the past five years with increased demand for primary sector products like dairy and meat. New Zealand's wine exports to the US surged until 2023, yet growth stagnated in more recent years due to global supply chain destocking. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the total mass of exports by sea to decrease at a compound annual rate of 0.8% over the five years through 2024-25.