Retail Diesel Prices

IBISWorld forecasts the average retail price of diesel to fall by 0.7% in 2024-25, to 209.5 cents per litre. The retail price of diesel is correlated with the world price of crude oil, which exhibits significant volatility. Despite volatility in global energy markets due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars, diesel prices are expected to decline in 2024-25. Uncertain global economic conditions, especially in the major economies of China and the United States, are weighing on global demand and prices for diesel. The New Zealand dollar is also forecast to strengthen against the US dollar during the year, reducing the relative price of oil in New Zealand dollar terms.

Various factors influence retail fuel prices, such as crude oil production levels, government policy both domestically and in other nations, and downstream demand. The number of vehicles and the total amount of distance covered, particularly by freight transport, also determines demand. The world price of crude oil is priced in US dollars per barrel. Consequently, the domestic retail price of diesel is also influenced by changes in the value of the New Zealand dollar relative to the US dollar.