Total Exports

Canadian exports are influenced by various factors, including global economic conditions, exchange rates, commodity prices and trade agreements. The United States remains Canada's largest trading partner, with approximately 70% of exports destined for the US market in recent years. However, Canada has been diversifying its export markets, with the share of exports to non-US destinations increasing from about 19% in 2000 to 30% in 2012. Demand for Canadian exports has been supported by rapid economic growth in emerging markets, particularly for resource-related products. Other factors impacting exports include the appreciation of the Canadian dollar, competition from emerging countries like China in the US market, and advancements in extraction technologies that have made energy exports more commercially viable.

Between 2020 and 2024, Canadian exports experienced fluctuations due to various global events. The COVID-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on exports, particularly in energy and industries relying on international supply chains. In 2020, exports dropped sharply to $649 billion, a 9% decrease from 2019. However, the subsequent years saw a gradual recovery, with exports reaching $737 billion in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. This recovery was driven by the easing of pandemic-related restrictions, the reopening of economies and the adaptation of businesses to new trade realities. The energy sector, which was hit hard initially, played a significant role in this recovery as global demand for oil rebounded.

For 2025, expectations for Canadian exports are cautiously optimistic. IBISWorld forecasts real economic growth of 1.6% in 2025, with exports playing a crucial role. However, there are potential headwinds, including the threat of US tariffs on Canadian exports and a pullback in immigration weighing on growth. The weaker Canadian dollar and strong demand from the US should be positive for exporters, but the threat of tariffs makes the outlook for trade highly uncertain. Despite these challenges, exports are projected to reach $748 billion in 2025, representing a modest increase from 2024.