Domestic Price of Beef

IBISWorld forecasts the domestic price of beef to fall by 3.0% in 2024-25 to reach 120.9 index points. Domestic per capita beef and veal production is projected to fall during the year, as the national beef cattle herd declines for a fourth year in a row. Nonetheless, relatively stable domestic consumption and a fall in export volumes will boost supply in the local market, placing downward pressure on domestic beef prices in 2024-25. Rising production from Australia and Brazil has weakened demand for New Zealand beef.

The domestic price of beef is influenced by a range of factors. A substantial majority of beef produced in New Zealand is expected to be exported, with exports having increased as a share of production over the past five years. As a result, domestic beef prices are heavily influenced by international supply and demand conditions. In 2019-20, China overtook the United States as the largest destination for New Zealand beef. Outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) led to a substantial protein shortage boosting demand for New Zealand beef substantially. Subsequent outbreaks of ASF in other countries in Asia and Europe, as well as outbreaks of lumpy skin disease and foot-and-mouth disease in Indonesia and other Asia-Pacific countries, have tightened global beef supplies in recent years. However, in 2023-24, the United States again overtook China as the number one destination, with local supply there impacted by drought.