Domestic Price of Fruit

IBISWorld forecasts the domestic price of fruit to increase by 4.9% in 2023-24, to reach 100.0 index points. Farming supply issues are expected to continue constraining fruit growers, forcing operators to pass on costs to maintain viability. Rainfall has fallen from the high volumes of 2021-22 and 2022-23, subduing output and placing upward pressure on prices. The New Zealand dollar is expected to depreciate in 2023-24. This factor will increase the relative cost of imported fertiliser and other grower inputs, supporting the jump in the domestic price of fruit in the current year. However, the consumption of fruit is expected to stall as inflationary pressures stifle household spending, slowing price growth relative to 2022-23.

The supply of import substitutes has begun to rebound following recovery from COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict's disruptive effects on international trade. New Zealand’s involvement in international trade of fruit has affected domestic prices over the past five years. The volume of exported New Zealand fruit has grown strongly over the period. Rising incomes in foreign nations, particularly throughout Asia, have lifted demand for New Zealand fruit. Furthermore, the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar over the past five years has assisted demand growth, with these New Zealand fruit products becoming relatively more affordable in international markets. Increasing exports of these fruit products has constrained supply to the local market, placing upward pressure on domestic prices. On the other hand, local growers have taken advantage of high rainfall, accelerating production over the past three years to partially slow fruit price growth.