Domestic Price of Meat

IBISWorld expects the domestic price of meat to rise by 6.1% in 2024-25, to reach 119.5 index points. As New Zealand exports most of its meat, global supply and demand movements primarily impact meat prices. Domestic and global demand for beef in key export markets like China and the United States have been strong, yet the limited supply of New Zealand’s beef has driven up prices of beef. While pork is less responsive to fluctuations in global market conditions, pork prices have also climbed due to elevated input costs and potential changes in pig farming practices. In contrast, the price of sheep meat has fallen with reduced domestic demand for sheep meats and the long-term decline in sheep numbers, which has been reducing supplies. New Zealand’s sheep meat exports have also faced intensified competition from Australia, offering more affordable lamb. Overall, the domestic price of meat is expected to strengthen in 2024-25, resulting from increased beef, veal and pork prices.

Volatile weather conditions in New Zealand have restricted domestic supply over the past five years. This trend has compounded the effects of the Australian drought in the early part of the five-year period. However, increased rainfall from 2020-21 has encouraged Australian cattle farmers to reduce turnoff rates and focus on herd rebuilding, increasing supply pressures. Among producers, beef production has outstripped the production of lamb and pork. Despite the higher beef production, domestic consumer preferences for beef in particular and meat protein overall have waned. Rising health consciousness has resulted in the growing adoption of vegan and vegetarian diets. Nonetheless, international demand for New Zealand meat remains strong, with China meeting the bulk of this demand.