IBISWorld forecasts the number of crimes reported in New Zealand to rise by 2.2% in 2023-24, to total 434,314 crimes. Weakening economic conditions and a cost-of-living crisis are contributing to a recent spike in crime. While crime levels declined at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, total crimes reported are above pre-pandemic levels. However, per capita crime rates remain slightly below pre-pandemic levels in 2023-24.
Theft is the most common reported crime in New Zealand, and has been a major driver in the rising number of reported crimes over the past five years. The COVID-19 pandemic led to the number of crimes, including robbery and theft, to decline as people staying at home limited opportunities for burglaries and robberies. Some forms of crime, like fraud, continued to increase as these crimes were not affected by lockdowns and restrictions. In 2022-23, with the end of lockdowns and restrictions, the number of reported crimes surged. Theft and robberies saw some of the highest rates of growth, with theft convictions rising by approximately 30%. Weakening economic conditions contributed to growth in these crimes.