IBISWorld forecasts milk consumption to fall by 0.2% in 2024, to reach 91.7 litres per capita. Milk consumption is influenced by a range of factors. These include changes in domestic milk prices, population demographics and consumer preferences. Declining milk production over the past three years has placed upward pressure on milk prices throughout the year, discouraging consumer demand. Furthermore, increasing demand for plant-based alternatives, such as oat milk and soy milk is also expected to contribute to falling per capita milk consumption.
Changes in domestic milk prices can have a significant impact on milk consumption. As milk prices rise, consumers may reduce consumption, while a decline in domestic milk prices may lead to increased consumption. Domestic milk prices are heavily influenced by global market conditions, with New Zealand exporting approximately 95% of milk produced in the country, according to the Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand. Low growth in domestic milk prices supported increased consumption over the two years through 2021. However, per capita consumption has moderated in recent years, with falling milk production weighing heavily on prices.