Net Migration

IBISWorld forecasts net migration to total 111,910 people in 2023-24, a rise of 41,903 people over the previous year. New Zealand fully opened its international borders in August 2022, subsequently placing significant upward pressure on net migration. In September 2023, the New Zealand Government (Te Kawanatanga o Aotearoa) also announced changes to immigration rules, increasing seasonal employer caps and expanding the scope of roles considered for skilled residence visas. The resumption of seasonal work and easing of conditions by the government has seen net migration rise to a record high through October 2023. Inflationary pressures and the allure of educational and employment opportunities overseas are expected to continue placing downward pressure on net migration levels in 2023-24.

Migration movements fall into four major categories: arrivals and departures of non-New Zealand citizens, and arrivals and departures of New Zealand citizens. Migration between Australia and New Zealand is easier compared with other nations. As a result, New Zealand citizen migration trends strongly correlate with trans-Tasman movements. Migration between the two nations usually closely follows economic and employment trends within the respective countries. Nevertheless, strong or weak economic conditions in other nations can have a moderate impact on New Zealand citizen migration movements. For non-New Zealand citizens, economic trends, employment opportunities and the reputation of the domestic education sector impact migration levels, as well as patterns of previous migration movements. For example, non-New Zealand citizen departures tend to increase two to three years after a rise in arrivals as work visas begin to expire.