Population Aged 14 & Younger

IBISWorld forecasts the population aged 14 and younger to rise by 0.8% during 2024-25, to total 983,500 people. This growth is primarily a product of high rates of migration in the wake of the pandemic. Many workers and migrants that emigrate to New Zealand have families which include children under 14 years of age, who are typically also granted visas. In 2023, the New Zealand Government (Te Kawanatanga o Aotearoa) eased migration rules in an attempt to lure skilled migrants to fill gaps in the labour market. This led to a surge in net migration, which is forecast to persist into 2024-25.

The New Zealand Government’s (Te Kawanatanga o Aotearoa) COVID-19 border restrictions led to an unprecedented collapse in net migration in 2020-21 and 2021-22. This led to a decline in the population aged 14 and younger. Moreover, over the longer term, the birth rate is declining, while the population in general is rising. This means that the population aged 14 and younger has shrunk as a share of the total New Zealand population. This population segment is estimated to represent 18.4% of the New Zealand population in 2024-25, down from 19.0% in 2019-20. This trend is a product of an ageing population, and expanding life expectancy in New Zealand. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the New Zealand population aged 14 and younger to grow at a compound annual rate of 0.3% over the five years through 2024-25.