Population

IBISWorld expects the population of New Zealand to increase 1.3% during 2024-25, to total 5,333,945 people. Population growth tanked since reaching 5.0 million people in 2019-20. Global migration flow collapsed during the pandemic, a situation that was accentuated by the New Zealand Government’s (Te Kawanatanga o Aotearoa) border restrictions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As pandemic restrictions wound down, including in New Zealand, net migration has rebounded strongly, which has driven an uptick in population growth since 2022-23. Therefore, in 2024-25, high net migration is expected to drive population growth.

Over the past five years, the population of New Zealand has risen, albeit at a slower rate than the preceding decade. Over the longer term, improving medical technology and advances in healthcare have driven an increase in the life expectancy of New Zealand residents. This trend has driven an increase in the number of people aged 65 and over. However, this growth has been limited by declines in the New Zealand birth rate. Additionally, New Zealand’s strong economy and pristine environment made the country a desirable destination for migration, supporting high levels of net migration until the COVID-19 pandemic. The extraordinary situation during the pandemic, including the extended closure of New Zealand's international border, led to an unprecedented collapse in net migration. Nevertheless, New Zealand remains an attractive destination for migrants, which has underpinned a sharp rebound in migration levels as border restrictions were lifted. In December 2023, net migration was running at record highs. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the population of New Zealand to grow at a compound annual rate of 1.0% over the five years through 2024-25.