Value of Merchandise Trade Imports

IBISWorld forecasts the value of merchandise trade imports to decrease by 1.7% in 2024-25, to $77.62 billion. Merchandise trade imports were down by around 4.0% in the first quarter of 2024-25, with a reduction in the value of vehicles, parts and accessories biggest driver of the decline. Strong import value in July, particularly for petroleum and petroleum products, has made estimates for the remainder of 2024-25 more optimistic. However, a decline in the value of merchandise trade imports is expected across the year, as import prices continue to fall from the high levels seen in 2022-23.

The value of merchandise imports has fluctuated but risen over the past five years. The New Zealand dollar has depreciated over the past five years, causing the costs of most major imported goods to rise. However, this trend has had a mixed effect on international imports. On the one hand, higher prices for imported goods have limited demand from some consumers, particularly for discretionary items. On the other hand, New Zealand’s limited manufacturing base means consumers are often largely dependent on imports of manufactured goods. Specifically, refined petroleum, road vehicles and machinery products construct the largest imports into New Zealand. This reliance on foreign manufacturing makes import demand relatively price-elastic. Changes in the value of the New Zealand dollar are often directly passed onto the consumer, which can cause the value of total merchandise imports to increase. Overall, the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar over the past five years has contributed to the rising total value of imports over the period.