Level of criminal activity

IBISWorld forecasts the number of crimes reported in Australia to increase by 1.1% in 2025, to total 1,067,979 crimes. Crimes such as assault, sexual assault and motor vehicle theft are anticipated to rise. However, unlawful entry with intent is projected to decline, in line with pre-pandemic trends.

IBISWorld forecasts the number of crimes reported to increase at a compound annual rate of 5.0% over the five years through 2025, with numbers rebounding from lows recorded in 2020. Strict isolation measures imposed by state governments across Australia contributed to the total level of criminal activity dropping by 17.7% in 2020. This decline was driven by significant falls in robbery, abduction, unlawful entry with intent, motor vehicle theft and a range of other non-violent crimes. These categories all fell by more than 20.0% over 2020. With the exception of robbery, crimes in these categories went up in 2021, though still significantly below 2019 levels, constrained by pandemic lockdown restrictions in Victoria and New South Wales, the two most populous states in the country. The number of violent crimes across all categories – homicide, assault, sexual assault, robberies and abductions – are all projected to rise over the period. Of these, assault and sexual assault are the largest, and have risen at the strongest rate since 2020, followed by robberies, which spiked 16% in 2023.

The increased digitalisation of the economy over the period has also played a minor role in reducing the rates of non-violent crimes. People are increasingly going cashless in favour of electronic payment methods, such as internet banking and near field communication (NFC) payment technology on smartphones. The prevalence of cloud computing has enabled professionals to save and access their work via the internet, enabling them to carry less work-related equipment and documents on person, reducing the prevalence of thefts. However, these trends have led to a rise in digital crimes, such as internet banking and other online fraud, as well as ransomware incidents, which is reflected in surging blackmail/extortion crimes over the two years through 2023. Although, this growth has been artificially boosted by underreported numbers in New South Wales prior to 2022. Overall, non-violent crimes are expected to account for 73.5% of the total number of crimes in Australia in 2025.