Median age of the population

IBISWorld expects the median age of the population to rise by 0.17 years in 2023-24, to reach 37.87 years. A slowing in net migration growth in the current year is set to increase the median age. Net migration is usually made up of younger people, weighing the median age of the population down.

Due to the use of a median measure, the effect of large generations such as the baby boomer generation, which includes people born between 1946-47 and 1964-65, no longer significantly contributes to changes in the median age. Only a large generation approaching and surpassing the median age can lift the median age substantially and result in a period of strong growth. When an average age measure is used, older generations such as the baby boomers have a much greater influence on the measure.

Longer life expectancies, due to medical advancements and healthcare developments, are having the largest long-term effect on the median age in Australia. As people are living longer, they are spending more time above the median age. Unless birth rates increase significantly, the median age of the population will continue to rise. The pandemic briefly upended these long-term trends, primarily by disrupting flow of migration through border closures. As restrictions eased and migration rebounded, long-term trends are slowly reverting to pre-pandemic trends. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the median age of the Australian population to increase at an average annual rate of 0.19 years over the five years through 2023-24.