National unemployment rate

IBISWorld forecasts the national unemployment rate to rise by 0.55 percentage points in 2024-25, to average 4.43% over the year. Tight labour market conditions are expected to ease slightly placing upward pressure on the unemployment rate over the year. While total employment numbers are set to rise, business confidence is projected to remain subdued over the current year. There have been major job cuts in the mining and airlines sectors, pushing the unemployment rate higher. The number of job postings on leading websites has also fallen.

The unemployment rate rose sharply in late 2019-20, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown measures. Lockdowns and social distancing requirements resulted in the Australian economy entering recession for the first time in nearly 30 years. Closure of many non-essential businesses and international borders essentially shutdown demand for many sectors in sectors such as tourism, retail and recreational activities. In response, many businesses cut costs and personnel, reducing employment across the economy. The unemployment rate peaked at 7.5% in July 2020. However, the unemployment rate largely trended downward over the two years through 2022-23. The national unemployment rate fell to a low of 3.46% in October 2022, with job vacancies near record highs in the wake of the pandemic. Economic support packages placed downward pressure on the unemployment rate throughout the pandemic. These measures included quantitative easing via the Reserve Bank and the Federal Government's JobKeeper Payment scheme. In particular, the JobKeeper scheme supported employment by allowing many lockdown-affected businesses to retain staff.

The unemployment rate has risen over the past two years, with the participation rate also climbing substantially. The number of people looking for jobs in the labour market has grown at a faster pace than job growth. The tightness of the labour market has eased owing to better supply conditions following the opening up of international borders. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the national unemployment rate to decline an at average annual rate of 0.24 percentage points over the five years through 2024-25.