Number of government school students

IBISWorld forecasts the number of government school students to increase by 0.8% in 2025 to reach 2.67 million. Growth in the number of government school students is driven by the Australian birth rate, the number of international students coming to Australia and parents' preferences when deciding between private and public schools. The population aged between 5 and 18 is expected to grow in 2024-25, lifting enrolment numbers in 2025. Real household discretionary income is set to climb in 2024-25, as anticipated declines in the cash rate will relieve some financial pressure on households. This may result in more parents preferring to send their children to private schools, especially those graduating from primary school to high school, placing downwards pressure on the growth in government school enrolment rates compared to 2024.

The pandemic constrained government school student enrolments between 2020 and 2022. The closure of Australia's international borders meant that the number of international students arriving in Australia was negligible for approximately two years. In 2021, the number of students enrolled at government schools decreased for the first time since 2008. This trend continued in 2022, when government school enrolments decreased by 0.6%, representing the largest decline since 1994. Various disruptions to school operations over these years, like mandatory remote learning, caused parents to become increasingly concerned about the quality of education provided to their children. As a result, parents were more likely to prefer private schools that had the perception of offering higher-quality and more personalised education. Strong growth in discretionary incomes over the same period also contributed to this trend, as the rising number of high-income earners lifted demand for private school education at the expense of government schools.

In 2023 (the latest available data), public schools educated 64.0% of all students in Australia. However, this percentage has been decreasing over the past decade as more parents have preferred to enrol their kids in non-government schools. The influx of wealthy international students has also contributed to this trend. Government school enrolments grew by 0.3% in 2023, as a sharp rise in migration numbers helped reverse the decline trends witnessed in 2021 and 2022. Inflationary pressures also caused a significant decline in discretionary income. This meant more families were unable to afford the significant costs associated with private school enrolment, benefiting government school enrolment rates. Notably, Victoria and Western Australia were the only states where enrolments in government schools grew compared to 2022, which kept the growth rate in enrolments subdued. While data for 2024 enrolments is not currently available, these trends are expected to continue to support government school enrolment rates. An increase in the number of foreign students will also support government school enrolments in 2024. However, many of these students come from wealthy families and prefer private schools, limiting the overall impact on government schools. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of government school students to increase at a compound annual rate of 0.3% over the five years through 2025.