Number of vocational students

IBISWorld forecasts the number of vocational students to increase by 7.8% in 2024 to reach 1.25 million people. This is because the national unemployment rate is expected to rise during the 2023-24 financial year, partly because of the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This situation has motivated many individuals to learn new skills or change their career paths. As the economy starts recovering, more individuals are choosing vocational training to better position themselves in the job market. This expected increase in the number of vocational students is a positive sign for the sector, showing it's responding to the country's economic and workforce needs by helping to fill skill gaps in various industries, including construction, healthcare and IT.

In 2015, NCVER introduced a two-step process to remove duplicate student counts by using unique student identifiers where available and a count of distinct client identifiers within each submission for the residual data. The removal of duplication counts has resulted in a dip in student numbers in the same year. In January 2017, VET Student Loans replaced VET FEE-HELP Loans. The introduction of the VET Student Loans has reduced the number of courses eligible for loans and imposed new and higher requirements on education providers to obtain and maintain registered training organisation status and government subsidies for their courses. This funding arrangement placed downward pressure on demand for VET courses in 2017 and 2018.

International student enrolments rose over the two years through 2024. The value of the Australian dollar is a major factor behind the affordability of education and the growth of international student enrolments. A strong Australian dollar makes studying in Australia more expensive than other countries, while a weaker dollar makes domestic VET courses more affordable. The Australian dollar's depreciation through 2023-24 has benefitted international student enrollment by making studying and living costs more affordable in Australia, thus attracting more overseas students.

The uncapping of Commonwealth-funded university placements has allowed many students to enrol in higher education courses rather than undertake VET courses, constraining vocational student numbers. However, the expected rise in high school retention rates will put downward pressure on student numbers. Vocational courses have no minimum requirement for entry, allowing some students to undertake vocational courses and begin their careers without completing year 12, increasing the number of vocational students when high school retention rates fall. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of vocational students in Australia to grow at a compound annual rate of 1.7% over the five years through 2023-24.