Secondary school retention rate

IBISWorld forecasts the apparent retention rate of secondary school students from Year 10 to Year 12 to increase by 1.0 percentage points during 2024-25, to 80.3%. Increases in public funding for primary and secondary education are projected to boost student attendance at secondary school, supporting retention rates. In addition, a rise in public funding for tertiary education is anticipated to discourage students from leaving school to pursue vocations. Furthermore, a rise in the national unemployment rate will likely support a higher secondary school retention rate in the current year, as the weakening jobs market incentivise individuals to complete secondary school and pursuing higher education.

The secondary school retention rate has become less dependent on the rate of employment. When unemployment dropped, the apparent retention rate tended to fall as students could more easily find unskilled or low-skilled jobs. Technological advancements and outsourcing to developing nations have resulted in fewer unskilled and low-skilled jobs in the economy. These have been replaced with high-skilled service jobs that typically require a university education.

The secondary school retention rate has followed a long-term upwards trend over the past two decades, as more students have been encouraged to complete their schooling and attend university. This has been supported by strong growth in the indigenous retention rate over the period. However, the disparity between indigenous and non-indigenous students still remains, with the secondary school retention rate for indigenous students being 55.8% in 2023, compared to 80.1% for non-indigenous students.

Disrupted schooling during the COVID-19 pandemic has weighed on the secondary school retention rate over the early part of the period. The importance placed on education and a competitive job market have supported demand for the final years of secondary education over the past five years. Greater employment opportunities stemming from attaining a university degree have driven students to remain in secondary school to continue on to university study over the period. Furthermore, increased university places following the introduction of the demand-driven system in 2012, which removed Federal Government caps on the allocation of places, has provided more opportunities for secondary school students to continue on to higher education. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the apparent retention rate to decline at an average annual rate of 0.4 percentage points over the five years through 2024-25.