Total mass of exports by sea

IBISWorld forecasts the total mass of exports by sea to increase by 1.7% in 2024-25, to reach 1,589.3 million tonnes. Increased overseas demand for Australian commodities, including iron ore and copper, will underpin this rise. The bulk of the total mass of exports in 2024-25 will be attributed to bauxite, alumina and oil. Demand for these goods has risen as economic activity has improved in the pandemic's aftermath. Elevated gas prices have supported the uptake of coal, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict and subsequent sanctions on Russian commodities have lifted global demand for Australian cargoes. However, a strengthening Australian dollar over the year is expected to hinder the international competitiveness of Australian exports.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has become a significant commodity export for Australia in terms of value following a substantial investment in LNG facilities. However, LNG carries far less mass than coal or iron ore, reducing its total contribution to the total mass of exports by sea. LNG exports are expected to reach 78.3 million tonnes in 2024-25, up from 25.0 million tonnes a decade ago. However, LNG export volumes have marginally lost momentum over the past five years. Other small (in mass terms) but fast-growing commodities include nickel and zinc. Bauxite and alumina export volumes have dominated and grown, particularly in destinations like China.

Iron ore production in Australia has trended upward as demand abroad has grown in both volume and value terms. A stint of high commodity prices also provided a strong incentive to increase the production of iron ore, which has supported export growth. Iron ore supports the construction requirements of countries like China, where economic growth remains strong albeit slowing slightly. Strong demand from Asia has led to higher commodity prices and stimulated the production of high-mass products like iron ore. The investment in mining facilities because of high commodity prices has sustained high production volumes.

Meanwhile, coal export volumes have contracted as the use of clean energy makes ground. Still, demand for coal remains due to the energy needs of countries like Japan and India despite a global shift towards renewables. Japan relied on coal when its nuclear reactors were turned off following the Fukushima nuclear meltdown, which resulted from the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. India has added more coal plants to its energy mix, insulating some domestic demand. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the total mass of exports by sea to grow at a compound annual rate of 0.7% over the five years through 2024-25.