Total visits to a general practitioner

IBISWorld forecasts that total visits to general practitioners (GPs) in Australia will climb 6.0% in 2024–25 to 178.8 million. This growth is primarily driven by the nation's expanding and ageing population, which elevates demand for primary healthcare services. As the baby boomer generation reaches retirement age, there's a notable swelling in the rate of chronic health conditions, leading to more frequent GP consultations.

Australians continued to consult with their GPs during the pandemic, driven mainly by the national vaccination rollout and the rapid expansion of telehealth services. Public health measures like lockdowns and social distancing had an understandable impact on the number of seasonal respiratory infections like influenza, reducing the number of related GP visits. In response to this habitual change, many clinics to adapted their billing structures, with some transitioning from bulk-billing to mixed billing models to maintain financial viability amid changing consultation patterns. Despite being introduced as a temporary measure to reduce virus transmission, telehealth quickly became vital to healthcare delivery. After recognising its benefits, the Federal Government made telehealth a permanent feature of Medicare on 1 January 2022, allowing patients nationwide to access GP, nursing, midwifery and allied health services via phone or video consultations. These changes have supported the growing number of GP consultations in the years following.

From July 2022, the Department of Health and Aged Care set the Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) indexation rate at 1.6% for most general medical services, considerably lower than CPI at the time. From July 2023, the Government applied an additional 3.6%, with a 0.5% boost from November 2023. From 1 July 2024, the Federal Government applied an indexation factor of 3.5% to most general medical services items, including standard GP consultations.

As of September 2024, the bulk-billing rate for non-referred GP attendances had declined to 77.7%, down from 86.0% five years earlier. This dip occurred despite the Government's efforts to triple the bulk-billing incentive for children under 16 and concession card holders. Despite these measures, challenges persist. The gap between GP fees and Medicare rebates continues to widen, leading to growing out-of-pocket patient costs and the contraction in bulk-billing rates. Without legislative intervention, these factors will continue to influence GP service utilisation and accessibility in the near future. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the total number of visits to a GP to swell at an annualised 1.8% over the five years through 2024-25.