Consumer confidence index

During the global financial crisis, a wide variety of negative factors placed downward pressure on consumer confidence, including rising rates of unemployment, high levels of consumer debt and a high degree of uncertainty regarding financial institutions. Consequently, consumer confidence in Canada declined from 126.1 in 2007 to 84.0 in 2009. Though consumer confidence experienced strong growth over the first half of 2013, confidence declined in late 2013 due to the poor job market performance. Lingering fears regarding a potential housing bubble also dampened consumer confidence. A short recession over the first half of 2015 also weighed heavily on consumer confidence, as slumping commodity markets reduced consumer confidence across all sectors of the Canadian economy, causing this index to decline in 2015. As oil prices bottomed out in 2016, the index declined even further that year.

In lockstep with a significant economic rebound in 2017 though, the consumer confidence index surged to its highest point since early in 2007. Surging confidence continued for much of 2018, as an extremely low unemployment rate coupled with steady economic growth boosted consumers' optimism regarding the economy. However, consumer confidence declined dramatically at the end of 2018, as a combination of stringent mortgage regulations, financial market volatility and a projected global economic slowdown amplified consumer pessimism. Notably, consumer confidence rebounded in 2019 and hovered around early 2018 levels, despite an economy that has weakened on numerous fronts. This can partially be explained by Canada's strong labour market; despite a troubling global slowdown and declining domestic investment, consumer pocketbooks have not had to bear the brunt of economic headwinds. However, the second half of 2019 saw the consumer confidence index dip sharply.

The economic landscape began to deteriorate considerably in Q1 2020. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak in China weighed on the country's industrial activity in Q1, disrupting global supply chains and demand as it has spread globally. To make matters worse, Saudi Arabia announced it would slash prices and increase production of oil in response to Russia refusing to lower output in response to the decline in energy demand. While the oil production dispute has been resolved, Q2 was also difficult for the Canadian economy as businesses only partially reopened. With job losses at elevated levels and restrictions of normal day-to-day activities for a significant part of the economy expected to last for the next few months, consumer confidence dropped to 82.7 in 2020.

In December 2020, Canada approved two coronavirus vaccines and this boosted consumer confidence, despite the fact that getting an adequate percentage of the population vaccinated will take a few months. However, lockdowns during the holidays were also implemented in Ontario and Quebec, which dampened consumer confidence. However, the vaccine rollout accelerated substantially in 2021 with consumer confidence rising to 106.5 in 2021. Despite improvement, new variants of the virus resulted in confidence declines in the third quarter with the Omicron variant pressing confidence even further in the fourth quarter.

Further contributing to weak confidence, rising inflation and consumer prices have increased uncertainty in Canada at the start of 2022. Additionally, added global pressures and trade concerns as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine have further inhibited consumer confidence. As a result, consumer confidence is expected to decrease in 2022, amid the geopolitical climate, inflation and ongoing global supply chain issues. More aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of Canada through 2022 raise consumer fears over a possible recession. Guidance from the Bank of Canada noted stagnation in inflation for the first half of 2023. However, plateauing salaries and the rising cost of goods have put downward pressure in 2023 as consumers' financial outlooks turn negative. Despite rate cuts, these pressures continued to exist in 2024, though confidence improved during the second half of the year. In 2025, the incoming Trump Administration announced 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada as well as additional tariffs against the economy. With many markets reliant on trade with the US, confidence has fallen significantly during the year, reaching their lowest since 2023.