Industries with Biggest Decline in Exports in Canada in 2025

• 1. Iron & Steel Manufacturing in Canada

  Decline in Exports for 2025: -27.5%

  The Canadian steel industry is currently facing a challenging period marked by a projected 12.4% contraction in 2025, with total revenues falling to $15.2 billion. Although the industry posted a 2.5% CAGR over the current period, this figure is largely due to strong gains in 2021, followed by subsequent declines. This downturn is primarily driven by the imposition of a 25% US tariff on Canadian steel imports, which has sharply reduced export volumes and reduced the profit margin, leading to l...

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• 2. Oil Drilling & Gas Extraction in Canada

  Decline in Exports for 2025: -11.6%

  Oil drilling and gas extraction in Canada have grown tremendously, resulting from rising prices and additional investment in production. Oil and gas companies suffered significantly in 2020 amid the pandemic as prices drastically fell amid lockdowns. As the economy reopened, the need for oil and gas became apparent and prices skyrocketed, bolstering revenue. The Russia-Ukraine conflict further exacerbated this, causing exports to surge as foreign countries looked elsewhere to get oil and gas....

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• 3. Construction Machinery Manufacturing in Canada

  Decline in Exports for 2025: -11.5%

  Construction machinery manufacturers have enjoyed modest growth. Manufacturers have benefitted from the US dollar strengthening relative to the Canadian dollar, pushing up exports. Still, climbing imports from the US and Japan hindered some growth for manufacturers, in terms of revenue and profit. Stiff competition from imports makes it hard for manufacturers to pass higher costs onto customers and manufacturers must keep prices competitive. Higher material and wage costs have contributed to ...

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• 4. Thermal Power in Canada

  Decline in Exports for 2025: -5.6%

  Thermal power is a major energy source but has faced some hurdles recently. Amid the pandemic, operators saw a modest uptick as the residential sector kept revenue afloat while commercial and industrial sectors were shut down because of health and safety protocols. While the economy reopened, elevated prices put pressure on thermal-powered plants, weakening revenue. Even so, most of this dip stemmed from the closure of many coal power plants because of their immense greenhouse gas emissions. ...

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• 5. Beef Cattle Production in Canada

  Decline in Exports for 2025: -4.8%

  High prices have consistently elevated revenues for cattle producers over the current period but also discouraged herd rebuilding and drained cattle supplies. Cattle prices have surged due to reduced herds in North America, influenced by persistent droughts impeding effective herd rebuilding. Although producers are generally inclined to rebuild, the volatility of high prices, along with the unpredictability of future drought impacts, has discouraged extensive retention ...

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• 6. Breweries in Canada

  Decline in Exports for 2025: -4.6%

  Canadian breweries have evolved in response to changing trends, yet its expansion has stagnated. While the industry has benefited from the popularity of craft beer from local microbreweries, consumers have shifted away from the traditional light and premium beer brands that currently represent most of industry brewers' sales. Navigating the challenging conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic, breweries saw sharp contractions across multiple years. Over the past five years, revenue has been fallin...

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• 7. Mining, Oil & Gas Machinery Manufacturing in Canada

  Decline in Exports for 2025: -4.4%

  Despite Canada being one of the world's largest producers of crude oil, natural gas and a range of other metals and mineral commodities, price fluctuations and volatility throughout the period ultimately pushed revenue down for mining, oil & gas machinery manufacturers. Revenue is closely tied to commodity prices and dictates the level of investment and activity by extraction companies. These prices have fluctuated greatly over time, especially with many goods seeing a sharp dip in price ...

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• 8. Ferrous Metal Foundry Products in Canada

  Decline in Exports for 2025: -3.6%

  The industry is facing significant challenges, marked by a decline during the current period at a CAGR of 4.1%, including an expected revenue drop of 19.4% in 2024 alone, bringing revenue down to $1.4 billion. This downturn is primarily driven by decreased domestic demand owing to a shift towards lighter, non-ferrous metals like aluminum, exacerbated by lingering pandemic disruptions and elevated interest rates. Additionally, the industry is grappling with sharply increased input prices and e...

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• 9. Petroleum Refining in Canada

  Decline in Exports for 2025: -3.2%

  Revenue for the Canadian Petroleum Refining industry has been volatile. Crude oil is the primary input into industry products, and therefore, its price is the primary driver of industry revenue. However, the pandemic's collapse in oil prices in 2020 drove refinancing revenue down. Subsequently, high demand and ongoing supply chain disruptions led crude oil prices to spike sharply, translating into an industry revenue boom in 2021 and 2022. However, tempering oil prices in 2024 and potentially...

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• 10. Metal Stamping & Forging in Canada

  Decline in Exports for 2025: -3.2%

  Metal stampers and forgers in Canada have faced considerable volatility in recent years. Elevated metal prices and pandemic-related disruptions caused considerable swings in revenue, with strong demand across market segments helping support industry profit. Industry revenue is estimated to decline at a CAGR of 1.9% to $1.8 billion through the end of 2024, with a forecast decline of 0.7% in the current year as price growth normalizes. 

  Stamping and forging companies' key downstream mark...

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