Apparent fruit and vegetable consumption

IBISWorld forecasts apparent fruit and vegetable consumption to decrease by 0.5% in 2025, to reach 100.6 kilograms per capita. The decline in fruit and vegetable consumption in New Zealand in 2025 can be attributed to several interconnected factors. According to Reserve Bank of New Zealand (Te Putea Matua), the rising costs of fresh produce—seeing price increases of approximately 45% between July 2014 and March 2023—have outstripped those of processed foods, which rose by only about 14%. This widening price gap has led consumers to opt for more affordable, less nutritious alternatives - a trend expected to be maintained in 2025. Secondly, supply chain disruptions caused by extreme weather events like Cyclone Gabrielle have diminished the availability of fresh produce and driven prices higher, which are set to last into 2025, with the country's regional specialisation intensifying its vulnerability to such shocks. Lastly, according to the Ministry of Health (Manatu Hauora), a systemic imbalance in the food industry, where commercial interests outweigh public health considerations, has restricted access to affordable, nutritious food.

The level of production and the quality of growing conditions play a major role in influencing domestic fruit and vegetable prices. This, in turn, can impact demand for fruit and vegetables in any given year. Many consumers are price-sensitive regarding food; customers opt for lower-priced alternatives when prices get too high for certain fruits and vegetables. Over the past few years, volatile fluctuations in rainfall have made fresh fruit and vegetable growing conditions more unstable. This trend has led to severe price volatility that has influenced the consumption habits of New Zealanders, generating a downward trend in the consumption of fruit and vegetables over the medium term.

Between 2021 and 2022, New Zealand witnessed a notable increase in fruit and vegetable consumption, propelled by resilient supply chains and shifts in consumer behaviour amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The agricultural sector showcased adaptability, maintaining a steady fresh produce supply despite global disruptions. Reports from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research highlighted robust import and export values despite the hurdles of the pandemic. Simultaneously, lockdowns and the rise of remote work afforded individuals more time to prepare meals at home, boosting demand for fresh ingredients.

Domestic prices of fruit and vegetables have soared over the past five years, which has constrained access for some households. While government stimulus in 2021 elevated household discretionary incomes and mitigated much of the impact of steep price hikes, this support was temporary. Furthermore, growing conditions have been a critical factor influencing the availability and pricing of fresh produce. Excessive rainfall in recent years has challenged growers' ability to plan efficient planting cycles, affecting supply volumes. This situation highlights the delicate balance between availability and affordability, especially without strong government intervention. These factors have contributed to declines in apparent fruit and vegetable consumption in recent years. Despite these challenges, IBISWorld forecasts a positive outlook, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.4% in consumption through 2025.