Cheese and butter consumption

IBISWorld expects consumption of cheese and butter to drop by 1.3% in 2025, to 13.37 kilograms per capita. Cheese consumption accounts for the majority, and is expected to total 7.43 kilograms per capita in the current year. Declining cheese and butter consumption is expected to be driven by rising health consciousness and concerns over environmental issues. Both cheese consumption and butter consumption is projected to fall on a per capita basis in 2025, as surging prices (due to tight global milk supplies) discourage demand.

The New Zealand public has become increasingly concerned about the source of their food, with a greater focus on natural and organic foods. This trend has boded well for cheese and butter as, despite the significant fat content in these products, they are considered a reliable source of calcium. Organisations such as DairyNZ have promoted dairy products and attempted to improve consumer confidence in dairy farming, which has supported consumer perception of consuming dairy goods, including cheese and butter, boosting consumption. Per capita butter consumption has risen over the past five years. Increased home baking supported increased per capita butter consumption during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. However, per capita cheese consumption has edged down over the period. Consumers are increasingly favouring specialty cheeses such as haloumi and gouda over everyday varieties such as cheddar. Due to the price-premium of specialty cheese compared to everyday cheese, these are purchased in lower quantities. Cheese prices have risen strongly over the past five years. Amid rampant inflation over much of the period, many New Zealanders have tightened their budgets, leading to reduced demand for cheese.

Rising trends of veganism and vegetarianism has also constrained cheese and butter consumption over the past five years in favour of alternative plant-based dairy products. This is due to increasing ethical and environmental concerns. Some environmentally conscious consumers are switching away from dairy products, as dairy cattle are a direct contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. The latest data collected by the Government's National Inventory shows dairy cattle contributed 38.4% of the agricultural sector and 20.4% of total greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand in 2023. Farmers have attempted to abate contributions through methane capture systems and other greenhouse gas mitigation techniques. Overall, IBISWorld expects cheese and butter consumption to remain relatively stable over the five years through 2025.