Level of criminal activity

IBISWorld forecasts the number of crimes reported in New Zealand to rise by 2.9% in 2025-26 to reach 493,557. This increase reflects the ongoing impacts of weak economic conditions and a persistent cost-of-living crisis, both of which have contributed to higher crime rates. Although crime declined during the peak of the pandemic, current figures have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Less government support alongside sustained inflation has placed further strain on household budgets. With prices expected to remain elevated through 2025-26, the costs of essentials are likely to keep pressure on household finances and contribute to ongoing increases in reported crime.

Theft is the most common reported crime in New Zealand and has been a major driver in the rising number of reported crimes over the past five years. The pandemic led to a decline in the number of crimes, including robbery and theft, as people staying at home limited opportunities for burglaries and robberies. Some forms of crime, like fraud, continued to increase as these crimes were not affected by lockdowns and restrictions. In 2022-23, with the end of lockdowns and restrictions, the number of reported crimes surged. Theft and robberies saw some of the highest rates of growth, with theft convictions rising by approximately 30%. Weakening economic conditions contributed to growth in these crimes.

Population growth remains a major driver of absolute crime volumes, with more residents, particularly in younger, urban and migrant groups, resulting in more recorded offences. However, per capita crime in New Zealand has trended downwards over the long term. This has been helped by an ageing population and wider tertiary participation, both of which reduce prevalence in high-risk cohorts. However, IBISWorld forecasts the total number of crimes committed to increase at a compound annual rate of 4.7% over the five years through 2025-26. This increase reflects not only population gains but also changes in reporting methods, police counting rules and the rapid emergence of new crime types like digital fraud. Economic pressures, including the cost-of-living crisis and rising household financial stress, have also been linked with increases in volume offences like shoplifting and retail theft.