Mobile telecommunications density

IBISWorld estimates that mobile telecommunications density will increase 1.0 percentage points in 2025-26, resulting in 133.0 active mobile services for every 100 people in New Zealand. The normalisation of conditions following strong growth in aftermath of the pandemic has subdued growth in the density of mobile devices from businesses and consumers in the current year. Nonetheless, the continued rollout of 5G services is expected to drive growth in mobile telecommunications density, although growth from early adoption is expected to ease. For instance, in early 2025, Ericsson and One New Zealand launched a five-year partnership to deploy advanced 5G capabilities, which is set to expand mobile telecommunications density across New Zealand. Even so, market saturation within the smartphone segment has somewhat slowed the uptake of new mobile phones and other mobile devices.

Mobile telecommunications density has expanded over the past five years. The rollout of the Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB) network has resulted in consumers increasingly switching from traditional copper telecommunications services to fibre broadband services. As voice over internet protocol (VoIP) services become more sophisticated, this transition has incentivised consumers to switch off their traditional fixed-line voice communications services and substitute mobile voice services for when VoIP is not a viable option. Smartphone ownership and usage has also increased over the past five years, contributing to increases in mobile telecommunications density. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has put downwards pressure on the number of active mobile telecommunications services in New Zealand. Consumer sentiment fell strongly and business confidence remained negative in 2020-21, and many consumers spent more time at home with fixed internet services, which limited consumer and business expenditure on additional mobile devices.

Demand for constant connectivity from consumers, combined with greater data allowances from mobile telecommunications providers, has also increased the popularity of mobile services over the past five years. In 2020-21, the number of mobile connections declined. However, over the three years through 2025-26 the number of active mobile connections is expected to resurge. According to the Commerce Commission, monthly data usage from mobile connections has grown strongly over the past decade, to reach an average of 6.23gb of data consumed per mobile connection. However, this rise is still dwarfed by fixed-line broadband connections, which consume an average 430gb of data per month in 2023. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts mobile telecommunications density to increase by an average 3.8 percentage points over the five years through 2025-26.