Number of births

IBISWorld forecasts the number of births to rise by 0.3% in 2024-25 to 59,550. Births in 2022-23 dropped to their lowest since point 2014-15, primarily due to economic uncertainty and cost-of-living pressures. Comparatively, birth rates are expected to trend upwards over the two years through 2024-25 with economic conditions easing. the New Zealand Government's (Te Kawanatanga o Aotearoa) full reopening of international borders is anticipated to lift net migration figures to above pr-COVID levels and also support a rise in the number of births in New Zealand.

According to Statistics New Zealand, the total fertility rate declined to its lowest on record in 2023, to 1.56 births per woman, down from 2.15 a decade earlier. Many couples are starting a family later in life, and having less children compared with historical averages. While there are many contributing factors, cultural changes have contributed to the decline in the number births over the past decade. More women are choosing to enter and remain in the workforce and seek education, which tends to reduce the number of children these individuals have. In addition, social perceptions of contraception have become more relaxed, resulting on more women accessing and using contraceptive methods. This is demonstrated in the sharp decline in fertility rate for women under 30. In particular, births by teenagers have become less common, more than halving over the decade through 2022-23, according to Statistics New Zealand. In addition, the steady decline of infant mortality rates has resulted in couples having fewer babies, contributing to the declining total fertility rate.

Due to the declining total fertility rate, the number of births has only marginally increased over the past five years, supported by population growth. The COVID-19 outbreak constrained net migration placing further downward pressure on birth rates. Patterns in the number of births also tend to be reflective of population growth 20 to 40 years ago. Strong growth in the number of births during the 1980s has helped to boost birth rates over the past decade, although an overall decline in the number of births during the 1990s has limited the population size of adults of reproducing age in New Zealand. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of births to increase at a compound annual rate of 0.1% over the five years through 2024-25.