Number of deaths

IBISWorld forecasts the number of deaths in New Zealand to drop by 2.2% in 2024-25, to a total of 36,799 deaths. The primary cause of death in New Zealand is noncommunicable diseases. The New Zealand Government (Te Kawanatanga o Aotearoa) published the Government Policy Statement on Health 2024-27 on June 2024. According to this statement, five noncommunicable diseases, including cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, diabetes and poor mental health, contribute significantly to deaths from noncommunicable diseases in New Zealand. Despite the ageing population, slower growth in New Zealand's population is expected to result in slower growth in the number of deaths.

Deaths from communicable illnesses, such as the winter flus and road accidents impact the number of deaths. Following a two-year absence through the end of 2021-22, aided by the COVID-19 pandemic and social distancing practices, the flu returned in full force from 2022-23, swamping hospitals with high patient numbers. Most flu cases have been influenza A, which typically causes more illness in elderly populations. A flu strain of similar effect has emerged over the past few years, driving up death numbers, particularly among the older age cohort.

The number of deaths in New Zealand is highly correlated with the size of the overall population. Consequently, long term growth in New Zealand's population has ensured the number of deaths recorded annually generally trends upwards. The number of deaths is usually highest during the winter months, with colder weather driving an increase in the number of deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses. The leading causes of death in New Zealand include cancer and heart diseases. Typically, over 70% of deaths registered in New Zealand annually are of people who were aged over 70 at the time of their death. Growth in the median age of the population over the past five years has driven an increase in the number of people in this demographic, and contributed to growth in the number of deaths over the period. Rising health consciousness and improvements in medical technology have limited growth in the number of deaths recorded in New Zealand over the past decade. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of deaths in New Zealand to rise a compound annual rate of 1.3% over the five years through 2024-25.