Total tourist visitor days

IBISWorld forecasts the total number of tourist visitor days to increase by 3.8% in 2024-25, to 133.08 million days. Real household discretionary income is anticipated to remain high in the current year, especially when compared with a pre-pandemic environment. This will encourage New Zealanders to continue booking and undertaking domestic holidays. The number of short-term trips to international destinations by Australian residents is also expected to rise significantly in 2024-25. Australians represent a key source of inbound tourism, and greater demand from this market will drive growth in international tourist visitor days.

Traditionally, domestic residents accounted for the majority of total tourist visitor days. For example, domestic tourists made up just under 65% of total visitor days in 1999-00. However, strong rises in inbound tourism over the past decade have reduced this share, with domestic tourists accounting for 48.1% of total visitor days in 2019-20. However, this drastically increased over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic due to international travel restrictions, causing domestic residents' share of visitor days to skyrocket to an estimated 93.7% in 2020-21. Domestic residents are expected to decline to 41.9% of total visitor days in 2024-25.

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, a reduction in Chinese economic growth had been a primary driver of subdued tourist numbers, as China accounts for a notable share of inbound tourism. Strong competition in the international tourism market also limited international tourist visits in 2018-19. However, inbound tourism has trended upward for most of the past decade. New Zealand's strengthening reputation as a tourist destination and the ongoing expansion of overseas airlines into the local market had been boosting inbound arrival numbers. Key inbound markets include Australia, China, the United Kingdom and the United States. In addition, a depreciation of the New Zealand dollar has encouraged domestic travel over the past five years, as this trend has placed upward pressure on the price of overseas holidays by New Zealanders. Nevertheless, the substantial impact of the pandemic on inbound international tourist days has constrained growth in total tourist days over the period. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the total number of tourist visitor days to rise slightly at a compound annual rate of 1.9% over the five years through 2024-25.