Total visits to a general practitioner

IBISWorld forecasts the total visits to a GP to increase by 0.8% in 2024-25, reaching 13.1 million visits. Both an aggregate growth in New Zealand's population and an increase in the average age of its constituents will necessitate growth in GP visits over the year. However, upwards pressure on GP fees is likely to offset some of this trend. A survey conducted by The General Practice Owners Association of Aotearoa New Zealand (GenPro) in August 2024 indicated that close to 90.0% of GPs have or are planning to increase their fees, with insufficient government quoted as the main driver of this trend. GenPro estimated that a base funding increase of around 14.0% would be required to stabilise the industry. However, Health NZ committed to a base funding increase of 4.0% in 2024-25. As a result, costs for GP visits are set to grow for New Zealand residents, which will force many to reconsider their need to visit.

Growth in New Zealand's population, in particular the growing proportion of older New Zealanders as a share of the population, contributes to increases in the number of visits to a GP. Growth in the population is a key driver for GP services, as it results in a greater pool of patients requiring GP services throughout a given year. Additionally, older individuals are more susceptible to chronic illness and disease and are subsequently more likely to visit GPs. However, despite New Zealand's growing and ageing population, total GP visits have fallen over the past five years.

This decline in GP visits is driven by a combination of factors, including the ongoing effects of the pandemic, changing health behaviours and access issues. GP visits peaked at 14.2 million in 2019-20 before the onset of the pandemic. GP visits fell by 12.0% in 2020-21, as many GPs operated at a lower capacity. Lockdowns across the country also made GP visits less frequent, as transmission of non-COVID viruses also trended downwards. Increased public health concerns following the pandemic led to many individuals delaying nonessential visits to their local GP. However, the gradual recovery in GP visits between 2021-22 and 2023-24 reflects the normal return of social and economic activity. In particular, GP visits among socially active 25- to 44-year-olds increased significantly in 2023-24, increasing by over 400,000 throughout the year. This trend was a significant driving factor behind a 6.6% rise in GP visits in 2023-24.

While GP visits have trended upwards since the end of the pandemic, they still remain well below levels witnessed in 2019-20. This is largely due to the rising barriers to visiting a GP, as indicated by the NZ Health Survey 2023-24. 25.7% of adults expressed that time taken to get an appointment was a barrier to visiting a GP, up from 21.2% in 2022-23. 15.5% of adults also reported cost as a barrier that caused them not to attend a GP in the 12 months prior. This barrier is particularly prevalent for 25- to 34-year-olds, of which 25.4% said this was a significant issue. The basic fee to visit a GP in New Zealand can vary between $45 and $100. Factors such as the clinic's geographic location and whether it is operating after hours can affect the price of a consultation. Nonetheless, acute labour shortages in many regions of New Zealand and limited funding are expected to place upwards pressure on these prices in 2024-25, dampening patients' ability to access GP services, partially offsetting growth in 2024-25. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the total number of visits to a GP to fall at a compound annual rate of 1.6% over the five years through 2024-25 due to the shortage of GPs and the cost-of-living crisis.