Business Environment Profiles - New Zealand
Published: 19 June 2024
US dollars per New Zealand dollar
1 $US
-0.8 %
This report analyses the exchange rate of the New Zealand dollar (NZ$) in terms of the US dollar (US$). This report shows the average of the monthly exchange rate over each financial year. The data for this report is sourced from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (Te Putea Matua) and is presented in terms of US dollars per New Zealand dollar.
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IBISWorld forecasts the US$/NZ$ exchange rate to increase by 1.8% in 2024-25, to $0.6213. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to maintain the current cash rate level and is even considering a rate hike in line with its "higher for longer" rate policy. New Zealand is expected to witness a rate cut in late 2025 as the RBNZ is apprehensive about sticky inflation. Declining expectations of a rate cut are boosting the New Zealand dollar's strength against the US dollar. Improving retail sales in the country are also benefiting the New Zealand dollar as it signals the central bank to tread cautiously with rate cut decisions. However, the US Federal Reserve's similar disposition is also strengthening the USD, limiting the increase in the exchange rate.
In December 2020, the US Federal Reserve extended its temporary currency swap agreements with nine central banks until December 2021 to ease the pressure on demand for USD liquidity. The nine central banks were Australia, Brazil, Denmark, South Korea, Mexico, Norway, New Zealand, Singapore and Sweden. The move by the US Federal Reserve to increase supply of US dollars supported an increase in the US$/NZ$ exchange rate in 2021-22. Furthermore, New Zealand's relative success in containing COVID-19 led to the exchange rate rising over the two years through 2021-22.
Over the past five years, the New Zealand dollar has depreciated against the US dollar. At the start of the period, increases in the US Federal Reserve's Federal Funds Rate, combined with cuts to the OCR, placed pressure on the value of the New Zealand dollar. A slowdown in the Chinese economy and the trade war between the US and China weighed on the New Zealand dollar, given China's significance as a trade partner. In addition, the RBNZ's decision to cut the OCR in 2019-20 further contributed to the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar. However, robust prices for New Zealand's commodity exports, driven by demand from China, supported the value of the New Zealand dollar over the two years through 2021-22. Higher interest rates and retail spending are also pushing up the New Zealand dollar. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the US$/NZ$ exchange rate to fall at a compound annual rate of 0.8% over the five years through 2024-25.
IBISWorld forecasts the US$/NZ$ exchange rate to rise by 4.8% in 2025-26, to $0.6513. Strong dema...
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