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Business Environment Profiles - United Kingdom

Natural gas reserves

Published: 31 May 2025

Key Metrics

Natural gas reserves

Total (2026)

121 Billion

Annualized Growth 2021-26

-3.7 %

Definition of Natural gas reserves

This report analyses natural gas reserves in the United Kingdom. The data is sourced from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), and the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA), in addition to estimates by IBISWorld. Figures provided represent the UK's total proven gas reserves from onshore and offshore stocks - these include dry gas fields, gas condensate fields, oil fields with associated gas yields, and coal bed methane projects. The OGA government agency defines "proven reserves" as those reserves which, on the available evidence, are virtually certain to be technically and economically producible (i.e., having a better than 90% change of being produced). Gas reserves are listed in billion cubic metres (conversion factor: 1 cubic metre of gas = 35.315 cubic feet of gas) and the data is presented over calendar years.

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Recent Trends – Natural gas reserves

Over the five-year period through 2025-26, the total volume of UK proven oil reserves is forecast to fall at a compound annual rate of 3.7%, rising to 121.2 billion cubic metres. The total volume of proven natural gas reserves, whether sourced from onshore or offshore stocks, is dependent on the rate of total production and reserve additions from new field developments (e.g., those resulting from exploration success and reserve revisions in established field stocks). Gas is one of the key pillars of the UK's energy mix, accounting for circa 29% of the UK's energy production and second only to oil according to BEIS' Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES) 2020. Meanwhile, BEIS claim that gas met nearly two-thirds of total domestic energy demand in 2019, going on to state that gas production from the UK's Continental Shelf (UKCS) would alone be sufficient to meet just shy of half of UK demand - the UKCS is the region of waters surrounding the United Kingdom (e.g., parts of the North Sea, the North Atlantic, the Irish Sea and the English Channel), in which the country has mineral rights. According to the OGA, remaining UKCS recoverable petroleum oil and gas reserves and resources is in the range of 10-to-20 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), which the OGA claims is enough to sustain production for 20 years plus. However, the OGA claims that further collaboration between exploration companies and significant investment was required in new field developments for untapped potential to be realised.

For 15 consecutive years through 2014 inclusive, total natural gas reserves declined year-on-year. During this period, the United Kingdom was no longer recognised as being self-sufficient in gas production and reverted to being a net gas importer, particularly from Europe albeit further afield. This shift from domestic gas surplus to import dependency was led by unsustainably high production which preceded an underlying decline in the rate of production from the UKCS since peaking in early-2000. The UK government was of the belief that increasing diversity of gas suppliers (e.g., imports) and supply routes was key to achieving security of supply, yet despite new pipelines, liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, and gas storage facilities that went under construction during this period, seemingly terminal decline in gas production inevitably depleted reserve volumes, leaving the United Kingdom reliant on gas imports.

In 2015, however, natural gas reserves grew by 1%. Stemming the apparent terminal decline, re-classification of some reserves that had, until 2015, not been recognised and sanctioned, resulted in a revision in proven gas volumes. Meanwhile, as per the OGA, petroleum oil and gas production output in the UKCS rose between 7% and 8% in 2015 which was subsequently reflected in an increase in reserves. An increase in reserves by way of accelerated production was driven by preceding investment in new facilities coming on stream, such as energy and water company Taqa's 10,000-barrel-a-day Cladhan field off Shetland. Growth in 2015 proved to be a false dawn however, as natural gas proven reserves reverted back into decline in 2016, falling by 15%. While founded in 2015 as an executive agency of BEIS, the OGA assumed responsibility for publishing the oil and gas output projections in 2016. The changes in the classification system, now administered by the OGA, meant that the published data for 2016 is not directly comparable to that published for 2015 and therebefore. Nevertheless, the apparent large decline in reserves was, in addition to being driven by reserves estimate revisions and adjustments for producing fields, was also, to a certain extent, caused by a general fall in average discoverable field size and decelerating production rates.

In 2017, natural gas reserves increased by 2.8% year on year, which was consequent of Field Development Plan (FDP) approvals and reserve adjustments for producing fields which, in turn, posted additions to the UK's reserve base. Administered by the OGA, FDP's provide the necessary support for field optimisation, and include all activities and processes required to optimally develop an oil and or gas field. In 2018, natural gas reserves held steady, before presumably declining by 3.9% on an annual basis in 2019 – at the time of publication, historical BEIS-OGA-ONS data for natural gas reserves is only available through 2018. Despite news of a significant gas discovery in the central North Sea in January 2019, which was described as being "the biggest find in more than a decade", said discovery was yet to be defined as a "proven reserve" while exploration activity ensued. Nevertheless, published in July 2019, the OGA's "UK Oil and Gas: Reserves and Resources" report pointed to an intermittent spike in investment in new field developments and incremental projects as reason for "exploration success" which was set to deliver significant additions to the UK's total contingent gas reserve resources. However, the OGA advocated an increase in reserves with cautious optimism, stating that the rate of replacement of proven and probable reserves is limited by swift resource maturation from new gas field developments and unsustainable investment. Following on from so-called "exploration success", would-be acceleration in the volume of UK proven gas reserves is presumed to have been limited, or otherwise counterbalanced, as those alternate field developments moved towards maturation and as money for new exploration activity dried up. Moreover, as stated in the OGA's 'UK Oil and Gas Reserves and Resources' publication, submitted in September 2020, an indicative year-on-year decline in reserves in 2019 was 'a result of production...not being offset by additions to the reserves base as a result of Field Development Plan ('FDP') approvals and reserves adjustments for producing fields'.

In 2020, total natural gas reserves in the United Kingdom declined by 23.6% on an annual basis, thereby exerting a drag on the compound annual growth forecast (-1.6%) for the past five-year period, as the rate of resource field extraction and gas production activity grinded to a halt during the early stages of the year, proving somewhat lacklustre relative to pre-pandemic levels thereafter - new reserve additions from new field developments were effectively postponed. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and a resultant exogeneous economic shock, typified by severe market disruption consequent of so-called 'lockdown' measures, caused demand for industrial energy and fuel to plummet at an unprecedented rate. Exemplary of lacklustre demand for commodities, the price per barrel of Brent crude oil - the international oil price benchmark - traded as low as US$15.98 (approximately £12.31) on 22 April 2020, a level not seen since mid-1999. Accordingly, fuel producers were effectively forced to halt production, offload a supply glut and put a lid on exploration efforts while demand remained at a record low for a period. Relative to natural gas producers, trends in production and demand have been near identical to that of oil, whereby the United Kingdom and global markets in 2020 firstly had a propensity to leave reserves in the ground until industrial demand rebounded, and secondly were unable to identify proven reserves at a rate similar to pre-pandemic levels, considering exploration efforts and new development starts were limited by a hiatus in industrial production activity. While pandemic-induced market implications for fuel exploration and new development efforts extended into 2021, the gradual reopening of global economies, in tandem with vaccine rollout, drove a rebound in downstream petroleum and gas demand, subsequent to a year where a nadir in industrial output was apparent. Accordingly, albeit still at a relatively modest rate comparable to historical standards, producers resumed fuel exploration activity to make up for lost time, making new additions to the UK's reserve stock in the process. In turn, gas reserve volumes increased by 9.2% in 2021 to reach 145.2 billion cubic metres, more so reflecting market stabilisation and a return to levels more in line with the long-term trend.

Amid a continued easing of pandemic-related restrictions and a return to a "more normal" operating economy, the UK's natural gas reserves are forecast to increase by 14.7% over the current year. However, this will primarily be due to the significant surge in the price of oil and natural gas during this year. On the morning of 24 February 2022, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia was initiating a "special military operation" in the Donbas region, and proceeded to launch a full-scale invasion into Ukraine. This then led to various economic and diplomatic sanctions from Western countries, including the UK, towards Russia. These sanctions have been met with threats from Russia and orders my President Putin to place Russian nuclear deterrent forces on high alert. While the global and domestic economic outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war is uncertain at this stage, it the price of oil and natural gas has increased and remained high.

This is because of the response to Russia's actions, whereby energy giants such as Shell, BP and Exxon have pulled out of Russian energy deals, while the many Western countries have announced a ban on importing Russian oil and other petroleum products, which has significantly disrupted the supply chain. In addition to this, higher prices oil prices as a direct result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine have been compounded by strong consumer demand across the globe as the world has attempted to recover from the pandemic and weak supply as the leading oil-producing nations throttle output. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the price per barrel of Brent crude oil - the international oil price benchmark – jumped above US$100.00 in March 2022, reaching an eight-year high of $127.00 on 8 March 2022. Since the invasion, the price per barrel of Brent crude oil has near-enough consistently remained over $100.00 and at the time of publication, the price is $102.00 on 21 July 2022. With the price of energy projected to remain high over the current year, natural gas producers are expected increase production and extend exploration efforts while demand is high.

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5-Year Outlook – Natural gas reserves

it is expected the total volume of UK proven natural gas reserves will decline at a compound annu...

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