Number of deaths

IBISWorld forecasts that the number of deaths will fall at a compound annual rate of 1.9% over the five years through 2025-26 to reach 654,300. In 2021-22, the number of registered deaths decreased by 12.2%, following the higher levels of mortality caused by of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic throughout 2020-21. Mortality rates can be volatile, especially among the older age groups. Extreme weather, such as heat waves or cold snaps, and epidemics can lead to a spike in deaths. On the other hand, medical breakthroughs can reduce the total number of deaths. Mortality rates also vary by region and socioeconomic background. For example, mortality rates are higher in the North of the United Kingdom compared with the South.

The number of deaths was volatile for most of the period. Over the longer term, medical advancements have tended to reduce the annual death tally as improvements in medical science have helped to keep people alive for longer. For example, the number of deaths from cancer has fallen over the past five years, despite a rise in the number of people being diagnosed. The stabilisation in the number of deaths despite the falling mortality rate in recent years can be attributed to the boost the UK population has received as a result of net migration and population aging. A combination of improved medical treatments and greater awareness of the most common ailments causes the average life expectancy to rise.

The coronavirus pandemic had a detrimental impact on the number of deaths globally, with the United Kingdom among the highest impacted per capita. According to the ONS, the number of deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test for the United Kingdom was 126,883 in the year through March 2021. As a result, the number of deaths is expected to have jumped 17.9% in 2020-21. In 2021-22, due to a successful vaccination campaign, that has targeted those most at risk of death and serious complication from the coronavirus, the number of deaths is expected to fall significantly. However, this is not yet expected to reach long-term averages, as community transitions of the virus continued over the year. In 2025-26 the number of deaths is expected inch upwards by 0.3% as death numbers stabilise