Business Environment Profiles - United Kingdom
Published: 13 June 2025
Passenger rail journeys
1756 Million
35.3 %
This report records and analyses the volume of passenger mainline rail network journeys in Great Britain. The data, which represents the total number of journeys made on franchised rail services and non-franchised rail services, is sourced from the Office of Road and Rail (ORR) and recorded over each fiscal year (i.e., April through March). Forecast data is estimated by IBISWorld.
We measure the upstream and downstream ramifications on thousands of industries so businesses can monitor their external operating environment. Explore membership options today.
Our industry reports include 35+ pages of data, analysis and charts, including:
According to the ORR, there will be an estimated 1,756.4 million passenger rail journeys in 2025-26, representing a return to the same levels as five years ago after a substancial drop in the years between. According to the ORR, as per the Department for Transport's (DfT) and the ORR's December 2021 "Rail Factsheet" publication, the mainline railway network in Great Britain is comprised of 15,935 kilometres (km) of the route, of which 6,045 km (38%) is electrified; 2,569 stations; and 23 Train Operating Companies (TOCs), which include East Midlands Trains, London Overground, Southeastern, and TransPennine Express. Overall, the number of passenger rail journeys has increased robustly since the privatisation of Great British railways. The process by which ownership and operation of the railways of Great Britain passed from government control into private hands (e.g., TOCs) began in 1994 and was completed by 1997. Since privatisation and deregulation of the industry, which aimed to create a more efficient rail network by facilitating greater competition, the total number of journeys had more than doubled. Nevertheless, in 2021, the rail company Southeastern Rail was also set to be taken over by the government as they failed to declare £25 million in tax. According to the ORR, there were 800.2 million passenger rail journeys in 1996-97, compared to the 1,742.4 million reported in 2019-20, representing a 117.3% increase. Moreover, the DfT's latest National Travel Survey (2019), published in August 2020, reported that 2% of all trips made in England were done so by rail in 2019. Meanwhile, on average, 21 rail trips per person per year were made by people in England in 2019, up 61.5% from 13 on average in 2002. In 2020, rail accounted for 1% of all trips due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The volume of passenger rail usage is ultimately contingent on what drives people's propensity to travel by rail, relative to their propensity to use alternative modes of transport, particularly a car and or bus travel, which are commonly preferred for short-to-medium length trips, and walking. According to the DfT, car travel remains the most common mode of travel in England, particularly in the North East and Midlands, making up 68% of journeys, followed by walking then bus trips. Rail journeys made up 11% of journeys. Employment trends (i.e., the geographical distribution of jobs in relation to employee's residencies, and whether or not they fall within the commuter belt) are a key determinant of demand for rail tickets, and thereby a key driver of passenger rail usage, considering rail services are commonly used by commuters, particularly by those regularly commuting in and out of metropolitan areas; the ORR states that almost two-thirds (63%) of all rail journeys in Great Britain start or end in London, while the DfT found that London residents made on average 54 rail trips per person per year in 2018 and 2019, more than double the England average of 22. In 2020, London remained the city with the highest rail passenger numbers, despite enforced shutdowns caused by the pandemic. The busiest train stations were all located in London including Stratford, London Victoria and London Bridge.
The ORR also found that Londoners also tend to make shorter trips by rail; in 2018, London residents' average rail trip length was 17 miles, compared to an England average of 30 miles. In addition to commuters' residence relative to their location of employment, other key determinants of rail usage include the cost of rail tickets, ticket price inflation, whether or not alternative modes of transport are cheaper; the availability, convenience and punctuality of rail services, ultimately a derivative of investment in network infrastructure and effective operator performance monitoring; and trends in "sustainable travel" (e.g., environmentally conscious commuters limiting their carbon footprint by travelling via train as opposed to petrol- or diesel-fuel cars).
Casting doubt on the viability of struggling TOCs and associated franchises, the number of passenger rail journeys declined by 1.4% in 2017-18, representing the first annual decline since 2009-10 (-0.7%), when the economic downturn ultimately resulted in weak demand and representing the decline largest since pre-privatisation in 1993-94. According to the DfT, season ticket sales plummeted by 9.2% in 2017-18 alone, suggesting commuters no longer placed the same faith in the rail network, when fares had risen inexorably - fares rose by 2.3% and 3.4% in 2017 and 2018 respectively - while services are beset by strikes and overcrowding. Notwithstanding the 2017-18 decline, however, the volume of passenger rail journeys had trended upwards and reverted back to growth in 2018-19, with the ORR recording in 2.3% increase; this 2018-19 increase was attributed to TOCs changing and improving their services as a significant, sustained and long-term investment in Great British railways had gradually begun to improve network efficiency, reduce overcrowding and help regain passenger trust.
According to the DfT, due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the average number of rail journeys into major cities also decreased by 75% as the government urged people to stay at home and work from home. In 2020-21, the traffic volume on the HS1 route increased by 6%, however, it has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels, prior to March 2020. This highlights how rail travel is falling, particular as more people are working from home and fewer people are commuting. Nevertheless, in 2021, TOCs also received a £10.1 billion subsidy from the government which is expected to boost rail travel.
While some travel restrictions were eased in early-May, with more workers allowed to travel to their place of occupation, public health restrictions were initially eased ad hoc since the government had actively encouraged people to avoid public transport where possible. In Q1 2021, the total volume of passenger rail journeys again fell below 100 million – to 79.6 million – as a result of a third nationwide lockdown which had officially been in effect since 5 January 2021 through the start of the government's roadmap out of lockdown on 8 March 2021. Accordingly, the total volume of passenger rail journeys recorded overall in 2020-21 amounted to just 387.4 million, a historic low since quarterly records began. In October 2021, the government took control of Southeastern services after over a missing £25 million, and as a result over a quarter of passengers, journeys are now under government control.
In Q1 of 2022, passenger rail journeys rebounded to 181.6 million as lockdown measures were eased. The government and private sector have encouraged employees to return to work as the majority of the population have been vaccinated. As a result, passenger rail journeys expanded by 85% in 2021-22, to 716.7 million journeys. Rail journeys increased in 2022-23 as more people returned to their place of occupation and lockdown measures were eased. However, rail passenger journeys are expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels as remote working has become more prevalent. In 2025-26, rail journeys are expected to rise by 1.6%.
In the five years through 2029-30, passenger rail journeys are expected to increase at a compound...
Gain strategic insight and analysis on thousands of industries.