Population aged 18 to 64 years

The population in the 18- to 64-year-old age group is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 0.3% over the five years through 2021-22 to 40.5 million. The rate of growth of the population of this age group is largely influenced by the relative numbers of people passing in and out of the age bracket. This can be determined by comparing the number of births in the period around a couple of decades ago and those nearly seven decades ago as well as net migration rates of people ages 18 to 64 years old. Deaths rates amongst adults between these ages can also have either a positive or negative impact. Large changes in the rate of growth are unusual due to size of the age group.

Growth rates strengthened from 2005-06 until the 2011-12 partly due to a baby boom in the late 80s to early 90s, causing an increase in the number of people turning 18. A surge in migration from Eastern Europe also brought many more people of working age to the United Kingdom adding to the rate of growth. The positive impact of net migration has continued since the mid-2000s but was significantly overridden in 2012-13 by the large cohort of older people turning 65. This was a product of the post-war baby boom. In 1947 and 1948 the number of births increased by 20.7% and 7.3% respectively. In contrast, the number of births were falling each year in the early-1990s as people put off having children in favour of further education and careers. This trend of falling birth rates reversed from 2003, supporting the number of people entering this age cohort over recent years. Over the two years through 2021-22, the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak has caused a spike in deaths of those in the older age range of the category and reduced the levels of net migration, which is expected to limit growth in the number of people in this age group. The overall trend of growth is expected to continue, with the number of people aged 18 to 64 years old is expected rise 0.2% in 2021-22.