Total domestic tourism

Total domestic tourism expenditure is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 20.1% to £85.1 billion over the five years through 2025. However, this trend over the five-year period has been significantly dictated by the recovery from the extreme decline in the total domestic tourism in the final two years of the period as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, IBISWorld estimate total tourism expenditure will contracted by 62.9% over 2020, before growing by 65.1% in 2021, to reach £56.2 billion.

With regards to the period before 2020 and the outbreak of the coronavirus, the UK's level of total domestic tourism was generally trending upwards over the five-year period, albeit at a rather minimal rate. Tourism grew in two of the three years through 2019, aided by improving economic conditions and good weather during summers.

However, there was a contraction in domestic tourism expenditure over the two years through 2021, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. The UK' response to the coronavirus included repeated lockdown measures such as stay at home advice, forced closures including essentially all tourist sights, hotels, bars, sporting facilities and sport itself. All these measures led to a significant reduction in domestic tourism expenditure.

Rising infection rates in the United Kingdom led to further local and national lockdown measures in November 2020 and January 2021, which reduced domestic tourism. All domestic coronavirus restrictions ended in July 2021, which is expected to encourage more domestic tourism over the second half of the year as restrictions international travels remain. The discovery of the Omicron variant led to restrictions being introduced in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland in December 2021, which weighed on domestic tourism. These measures included limits on entertainment venues and a return to social distancing rules at restaurants and other indoor venues, which reduced domestic tourism expenditure.

The outbreak of the coronavirus is also expected to have reduced the UK's level of real household disposable income, which will exacerbate the declining expenditure by domestic tourists. While the United Kingdom may experience a slight increase in the number domestic tourists who have cancelled visits abroad in favour of remaining in the UK once restrictions are lifted, this will be a rather negligible increase and not large enough to compensate for the notable decline caused by the enforced measures which were first introduced in March 2020. Hence, as a result of dwindling expenditure from both domestic and international tourists, caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

These measures were eased in January 2022 after the Omicron variant was discovered to be less severe. In February 2022, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia was initiating a "special military operation" in the Donbas region, and proceeded to launch a full-scale invasion into Ukraine. This led to several sanctions and a UK Foreign Office advice against all travel to Russia and Ukraine. This also includes flights that utilise Russian airspace, which could force a proportion of the population to delay flights, thereby boosting domestic tourism.

In the summer of 2022, strike action and staff shortages at UK airports have caused a significant number of flights. This is likely to lead to more people cancelling overseas visits and opting for domestic tourist spots. As a result, total domestic expenditure expanded by 4.8% in 2023.