Average annual precipitation

In 2025, average annual precipitation in the United States fell to an estimated 30.9 inches, a 2.3% decline from the previous year. The drop followed significant variation in rainfall in prior years, underscoring the increasing volatility of weather patterns. Early 2025 also saw elevated wildfire risk in areas such as Southern California, linked to continued periods of both drought and heavy rainfall. Regional disparities remain prominent, with the Pacific Northwest and Deep South regularly experiencing totals far above the national average, while the Rocky Mountains and Southwest receive significantly less rain.

Over the five-year period from 2020 to 2025, annual precipitation in the United States exhibited notable fluctuations, influenced heavily by the interplay between drought periods and increased storm activity. The period started with a recovery in 2021, with only marginal growth of 0.1% following a pronounced drought in 2020. Precipitation declined again in 2022, falling by 6.4%, as dry conditions persisted across much of the West and Southwest. In 2023, precipitation levels rebounded by 3.8%, attributed to regional shifts in storm activity, particularly in states previously experiencing below-average rainfall. These variations highlight the impact of warmer temperatures in shaping local drought severity and rainfall totals, since regions outside primary storm tracks remain vulnerable to drier conditions. In 2024, heightened hurricane activity drove a strong 6.9% increase in precipitation, pushing totals well above the five-year average.

Macro trends such as rising global temperatures and the increased frequency of extreme weather events remain critical drivers of precipitation rates in the United States. Climate change has resulted in a heightened occurrence of both storms and droughts, producing year-to-year variability and complicating long-term predictions. This volatility has contributed to a slow increase in national average rainfall when examined over a multi-decade period, but the five-year window from 2021 to 2025 demonstrates the more immediate impacts of climate variability, including regional disparities and the increased risk of secondary events such as wildfires.

Looking at the five-year period as a whole, the trend in average precipitation has been marked by short-term volatility despite a marginal overall increase. The national average edged higher in part due to record-setting years of rainfall and increased hurricane activity, while persistent droughts in key agricultural and western regions tempered overall gains. The interplay between increased storm frequency and continued vulnerability to drought events has kept the growth in precipitation modest, evidenced by the 0.3% rise in average annual rainfall between 2020 and 2025.

Outlook

In 2026, average annual precipitation is expected to decline slightly to 30.5 inches, a drop of 1.0% from the 2025 level. Despite this small decrease, rainfall levels are forecast to remain close to the long-term mean.

During the forecast period from 2025 to 2030, annual precipitation totals are anticipated to fluctuate within a narrow band, ranging from around 29.0 to just above 31.0 inches per year. The pattern of alternating heavy rainfall and droughts is likely to persist, with climate variability leading to both sudden increases and decreases in average rainfall. The impact of climate change, particularly the severity and duration of droughts in more vulnerable states, is expected to continue to apply downward pressure on annual precipitation figures. Simultaneously, increased storm frequency, including hurricanes, may provide offsetting boosts to yearly totals, as observed in 2024. The combined effect will likely be continued volatility in annual precipitation, with no prolonged deviation from the historical average. Regional differences are projected to persist, maintaining the established pattern of wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Deep South and drier climates in the West and Southwest. Macro-level drivers such as changes in global climate systems and ocean currents will remain highly influential, shaping the frequency and intensity of precipitation events across the United States during the forecast period.