Business Environment Profiles - United States
Published: 12 June 2025
Freight transportation services index
139 Index
1.1 %
The US freight transportation services index (TSI) measures the annual output of the US transportation sector. The index is composed of ton-miles of freight, or tons when ton-miles are not available, generated by for-hire trucking, railroad, inland waterway, pipeline and airfreight carriers. The TSI excludes international and coastal steamship activities, along with private trucking, courier services, and operations by the US Postal Service. The data is sourced from the Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The index is seasonally adjusted and its base year is 2000.
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The Freight Transportation Services (TSI) Index is primarily driven by economic activity, as robust growth boosts demand for goods, increasing freight movement. Industrial production and consumer demand also impact freight volumes, with consumer spending patterns shaping seasonal fluctuations. Meanwhile, fuel prices alter operational costs, affecting freight rates and volumes. Infrastructure and technological advancements enhance efficiency, while regulatory frameworks and labor market conditions influence operational dynamics.
The Freight Transportation Services (TSI) Index has traditionally grown at a rate slightly below that of US GDP, driven by the economy's shift toward service demand over goods. Service industries, while requiring some equipment, inherently depend less on transporting physical goods, reducing the overall demand for freight services. Despite this, the index still mirrors economic trends, with significant fluctuations during financial crises and recoveries. For instance, a decline during the pandemic and a following recovery in 2021 paralleled trends in the index, although it stagnated between 2023 and 2024, labeled by some as a "freight recession." Inflation and high interest rates have been key factors restraining goods movement. Moreover, although consumer sentiment has improved, it remains well below pre-pandemic levels. In 2025, the Freight Transportation Services (TSI) Index is expected to see growth, albeit at a restrained pace. The tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico could present inflationary pressures, but might also lead to a boost in imports temporarily in the year, which has the potential to keep rates elevated longer than anticipated.
As the economy expands, demand for freight services is expected to grow. This growth will be furt...
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