Incarceration rate

Though the rate of violent crimes has mostly declined in the United States since 1992, the rate of incarceration has experienced consistent growth during much of the same period. However, these two metrics have generally trended in the same direction over the past five years, with the crime rate estimated to decline at an annualized rate of 4.3%, while the incarceration rate is expected to decrease an annualized 2.9% during the same period. On a national level, incarceration rates have mostly declined in recent years; however, some states have incarcerated more individuals, causing the incarceration rate to rise in some years. In addition, the incarceration rate is strongly tied to state and federal incarceration policies. For example, California implemented its Public Safety Realignment policy in 2011, effectively diverting newly sentenced prisoners that met the following criteria (nonviolent, nonserious, nonsex offenders) from state prisons to local jails, hindering growth in the incarceration rate.

According to data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the federal prison system accounts for about 12.3% of total US prison inmates. Therefore, while changes in the incarceration rate at the federal level can significantly impact the total incarceration rate, policy changes at the state level generally have a larger effect on this metric. In 2014, the incarceration rate declined 1.7%, driven by many states implementing policies that encourage the supervision of nonviolent individuals rather than incarceration. In particular, Louisiana, Georgia and New York had fewer inmates in 2014, though some states (e.g. North Dakota) experienced growth in their prison population. In 2020, the incarceration rate is expected to fall 15.7% driven by the continued reduction of the federal prison population, particularly as prison systems posed an additional exposure risk during the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. This trend is anticipated to continue as the coronavirus and its variants continues to pose a threat to public health. Overall, the incarceration rate is estimated to decrease an annualized 3.1% over the five years to 2025.