Number of children aged nine and younger

In 2025, the number of children aged nine and younger in the United States is estimated to fall to 37.7 million, representing a decline of 0.8% from the prior year. The principal factor underpinning this trend is the sustained decrease in birth rates, with figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicating a decline to 11.6 births per 1,000 individuals in 2021, compared with 16.7 births per 1,000 in 1990. Although the overall US population has grown, resulting in an estimated 3.6 million births in 2021, this remains below the 1990 total of 4.2 million, suggesting the population increase has only partially offset declining birth rates.

Between 2020 and 2025, the number of young children declined from 39.2 million to 37.7 million, marking an average annual decrease of 1.0% across the period. Several macroeconomic and social factors have influenced this outcome. The falling birth rate has been the dominant driver, shaped by evolving social norms around family planning, shifting economic conditions, and increasing life expectancy. Delayed family formation has become more pronounced as individuals prioritize education and careers and postpone childbirth to later in life, widening generational gaps and placing downward pressure on the population of young children. The lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic also contributed to lower birth rates; economic uncertainty, health concerns, and disruptions to daily life drove many families to postpone or reconsider having additional children, which has further compounded the contraction in this age cohort.

Additional macro trends relevant to this demographic shift include restricted immigration patterns during the period, which had a limiting effect on the number of children entering or born in the United States. Policy changes that created barriers for undocumented migrants also played a role by reducing the number of families likely to have children domestically. High inflation and the rising cost of living during much of the previous five years have also deterred families from having a first child or additional child during this period due to the reduction in financial security these trends have caused.

Over the five years to 2025, the combination of social, economic, and policy factors has resulted in a persistent decline in the number of children aged nine and younger. The interaction of lower birth rates, delayed family formation, and migration policy restrictions has reduced population gains in this cohort below the level required to replace the number of children aging out of the nine-and-younger cohort, ensuring this age cohort continues to contract at a modest rate.