Number of deaths

In 2025, the number of deaths in the United States is expected to reach 2.81 million, continuing the downward trend from the high levels observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The annual reduction is projected to be 2.9%, reflecting ongoing improvements in public health and increased access to medical treatment. Advances in life-saving medicines and longevity-improving treatments for older adults are contributing to the decline of annual death figures after the pandemic-driven volatility seen earlier in the period.

Between 2020 and 2025, the number of deaths experienced significant fluctuations, driven mainly by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and broader demographic trends. In 2021, deaths increased by 2.4%, following an acute 18.5% spike in 2020 due to the pandemic, as both direct viral impacts and healthcare system disruptions led to excess mortality. In 2022, the situation reversed with a 5.3% decline in deaths as vaccination rates improved and public health measures took effect, helping to temper the increases seen during the prior years. In 2023, the death toll declined further by 8.7%, and the number of deaths fully reverted to pre-pandemic levels by 2024. Rising investment in healthcare facilities and research, alongside improved access to treatment, provided a partial counterbalance to the increased deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, helping to moderate the rise in deaths by 2025.

In summary, while deaths rose sharply in 2020–2021 due to the pandemic, the following years saw a gradual stabilization at pre-pandemic levels. Advancements in health technologies and expanded elder care accessibility have also reduced the mortality rate despite the increasing average age of the US population.