Number of immigrants

In 2025, the number of immigrants to the United States is expected to reach 1.30 million people, representing a growth rate of 3.8% over the previous year. This increase marks a continued recovery following the major disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic earlier in the period, and reflects a temporary boost as naturalization backlogs were processed in the prior years. However, this upward trend in immigration is anticipated to slow in 2025 due to a policy shift towards stricter immigration requirements, which is likely to inhibit the approval of legal residency applications.

Over the five years to 2025, immigration to the United States has fluctuated significantly in response to public health, economic, and policy changes. In 2020, the number of immigrants fell sharply by 31.4% due to the combined effects of restrictive policies and international travel bans during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the easing of restrictions and a change in administration, the reopening of borders and the rollout of vaccines triggered a significant rebound, with immigration rising 37.6% in 2022 and another 14.6% in 2023. The processing of backlogged applications further contributed to sharp growth during this period. Additionally, ongoing improvements in economic conditions in the United States made the country a more attractive destination for job seekers. Despite this rebound, the elevated growth rates of 2022 and 2023 proved unsustainable, and the pace of growth moderated to 7.4% in 2024 as application pipelines normalized. Policy adjustments, including delayed visa processing and incremental restrictions, tempered the boost from prior years even as macroeconomic drivers remained positive.

Broader macroeconomic and geopolitical trends have also shaped recent immigration patterns. Recovery in the domestic economy following pandemic-induced contraction restored incentives for migration, while global instability, such as conflicts and economic challenges around the world, served to both push migrants toward the United States and complicate regulatory responses. The interplay between U.S. administrative changes and global events heightened the volatility of immigrant numbers during the period. By 2025, stricter federal immigration policies are expected to sharply curtail new arrivals, with increased scrutiny and requirements offsetting positive macroeconomic trends and culminating in a more constrained environment for immigration. Over the five years to 2025, the net effect has been a 13.0% increase in the number of immigrants, though underlying volatility has created an unpredictable business landscape for industries reliant on population growth through migration.