Per capita dairy consumption

In 2025, per capita dairy consumption is projected to decline by 0.3% to 646.5 pounds. This decrease is largely the result of the outbreak of avian flu in the United States, which affects cattle, among other livestock breeds. Consequently, the spread of this disease in late 2024 and early 2025 disrupted dairy supply chains, resulting in regional shortages and price increases that reduced the amount of dairy the average American consumed. However, the outbreak was largely contained after the first quarter of 2025, which will drive a partial recovery in dairy consumption through the end of 2025. This recovery will not provide enough momentum to reverse all of the reduction in dairy consumption earlier in the year, and is being further mitigated by a gradual, ongoing shift away from dairy by American consumers.

Between 2020 and 2025, per capita dairy consumption exhibited modest fluctuations as market dynamics evolved. In 2021, consumption rebounded by 1.7% to 661.5 pounds, benefiting from the post-pandemic reopening of restaurants, cafes, and other foodservice markets, which traditionally drive a substantial share of dairy demand. Rising inflation in 2022 and 2023, however, shifted consumer behavior as prices for dairy and other commodities increased. Costs associated with cattle feed were subject to upward pressure, contributing to sustained dairy price inflation. Consequently, price-conscious consumers began moderating their dairy intake. Despite these headwinds, the decline in per capita consumption was contained at only 1.3% in 2022 and 0.6% in 2023, due to the ingrained status of dairy in American diets.

Incremental growth in per capita cheese consumption provided partial support for overall dairy volumes in this period. Cheese remained the largest single category of dairy consumption according to the latest publicly available data. Demand for dairy products remained more resilient than other food categories due to their importance in meal preparation. Conversely, growing consumption of dairy alternatives, such as nut milks and plant-based butter and cheese substitutes, has steadily detracted from dairy's share of the average American's diet. Nonetheless, essential product status and limited affordable substitutes for many uses prevented sharper declines, even as non-dairy alternatives began to expand market share.

Over the five years to 2025, these mixed drivers resulted in annual per capita dairy consumption declining by an annualized 0.1%, to 646.5 pounds from 650.7 pounds in 2020. Despite strong competition from plant-based alternatives and episodes of rising input costs, dairy products maintained their staple position, preventing drastic consumption declines and ensuring ongoing demand resilience within the broader food sector.