Business Environment Profiles - United States
Published: 03 October 2024
Per capita wheat flour consumption
131 Pounds (lb)
-0.2 %
Per capita wheat flour consumption represents the total amount of flour (white, whole wheat and durum flour) available for consumption per person in a given year. Data is sourced from the US Department of Agriculture and includes both purchased flour and the equivalent weight of flour in other food products.
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Wheat consumption is highly price-inelastic (i.e. the price of wheat has little effect on consumption), and is primarily driven by health factors. Wheat consumption declined over the past decade as high-protein, low-carbohydrate diets became more popular. White and wheat flours, used primarily in baked goods like breads, cookies and cakes, experienced major decreases in consumption prior to the recession, while durum flour, used primarily in pastas, has fluctuated around 12.0 pounds per person annually. However, since average consumption of white and wheat flours is ten times that of durum flour, total wheat consumption declined.
The decline of wheat flour consumption worsened following the 2008 financial crisis. The subsequent recession shrunk most Americans' disposable incomes, forcing them to cut back on the consumption of most products. Wheat products were not spared and consumption declined from 138.3 pounds per person in 2007 to 132.5 pounds per person in 2011. This decline in consumption was likely tempered due to consumers moving back to wheat products from the more-expensive meat products that had grown in popularity in previous years. Wheat consumption continued to fluctuate from 2011 to 2014, despite strengthening economic growth and disposable incomes. Dietary trends, such as low-carb and gluten-free, played a minor role in slow wheat consumption declines. Despite a growing population, per capita consumption of wheat is expected to fall over the five years to 2024 as a result of an overall trend toward a low carbohydrate and gluten-free diet. Additionally, supply chain disruptions and pressured spending amid the COVID-19 pandemic placed further downward pressure on consumption in 2020. Even after the economy reopened in 2021, wheat consumption fell 2.3%. This decrease was largely driven by healthy eating and spending levels spiking, which led to many more individuals being able to afford healthier food. In 2022 and 2023, wheat consumption rose, despite inflationary pressures. As habits shifted towards being more economically conservative and healthy however, per capita wheat flour consumption dropped in 2024. Meanwhile in 2025, consumption will drop further despite interest rates falling.
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