Per capita wheat flour consumption

In 2025, per capita wheat flour consumption is estimated to fall to 130.9 pounds, continuing the trend of declines observed in recent years. Despite lower inflation, demand for wheat flour is being suppressed by sustained health concerns and shifting dietary habits. The consumer shift toward high-protein and low-carbohydrate diets has remained a significant driver of reduced flour consumption. These trends have limited recovery in wheat flour demand, overriding any potential boost from improving economic conditions in 2025.

Between 2020 and 2025, per capita wheat flour consumption trended downward, decreasing at an annualized rate of 0.2%. After rising in 2020, consumption fell 2.3% in 2021, which was largely attributed to a spike in healthy eating habits and an increase in disposable incomes as the economy rebounded from the pandemic. Consumers opted for more expensive, health-conscious alternatives, driving this decline. Despite inflationary pressures in 2022 and 2023, per capita wheat flour consumption temporarily increased as consumers adapted to higher prices by favoring relatively affordable staple foods. However, this rise proved short-lived, as lower inflation allowed consumers to increasingly substitute bread and other wheat flour-based foods with higher-cost alternatives, leading to another drop to 131.6 pounds in 2024 and a further decrease in 2025. Throughout this five-year period, the shift toward gluten-free and low-carbohydrate diets, combined with a persistent preference for alternative foods, consistently dampened wheat flour demand. The impact of supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 also created lingering volatility in consumption patterns, though the immediate effects faded in the subsequent years.

Important macroeconomic trends influencing per capita wheat flour consumption in this period include growing health awareness, changes in household spending driven by variations in inflation, and shifting consumer preferences toward specialty diets. Although wheat consumption is highly price-inelastic and is relatively unaffected by changes in the price of wheat itself, it remains subject to larger social and dietary shifts. As a result, population growth has not been sufficient to offset per capita declines in demand, consolidating the trend of declining wheat flour consumption between 2020 and 2025.