Business Environment Profiles - United States
Published: 16 July 2025
Price of fertilizer
91 Index
3.4 %
The price of fertilizer is determined by taking a weighted average of the price of the eight most popular kinds of fertilizer used in the United States, which include anhydrous ammonia, nitrogen solutions (30.0%), urea, ammonium nitrate, sulfate of ammonia, super-phosphate (44%.0 - 46.0% phosphate), diammonium phosphate and potassium chloride. Together, these eight varieties of fertilizer account for almost 99.0% of all fertilizers used in the United States. The data is presented as an index received by producers and is sourced from the US Department of Agriculture and is presented in chained 2011 dollars. Forecasts are based on fertilizer cost projections by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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Fertilizer prices are expected to rise modestly in 2025, moving to an index value of 93.4, reflecting a 2.7% from the previous year. This slight upturn will follow a significant decrease of 32.2% in 2024, as lower energy costs and subdued industrial production weighed on input prices and demand in downstream agricultural activities. Key drivers in 2025 include stabilization in natural gas prices, which remain closely tied to ammonia production, and, consequently, to fertilizer prices. Lower volatility in input costs is expected to provide some relief, following a period of outsized price changes tied to global energy markets.
The price of fertilizer experienced unprecedented swings from 2020 to 2025. In 2021, an exponential increase of 47.8% occurred amid economic reopening, widespread supply chain disruptions, and a surge in input prices for commodities such as natural gas. The trend continued in 2022, with a further increase of 38.1%. A key catalyst was the war in Ukraine, which disrupted energy markets and fertilizer trade flows, compounding ongoing supply bottlenecks and global inflationary pressures. The high cost of natural gas directly influenced ammonia and broader nitrogen-based fertilizer prices, with market volatility intensifying.
Fertilizer prices began to decrease in 2023, dropping by 17.4%. This reversal was driven by easing supply chain bottlenecks and declining natural gas prices, supported by robust US energy production. However, persistent inflation meant that prices remained above pre-pandemic levels. In 2024, prices fell by a substantial 26.2% as energy input costs moderated further and global fertilizer demand eased alongside broader declines in industrial and agricultural production. The period from 2020 to 2025 was characterized by extreme price volatility, highly sensitive to geopolitical events and macroeconomic shocks affecting energy markets and global trade. Additional trends, such as changes in the value of the US dollar, played a role in shaping import and export competitiveness, while adverse weather, such as record floods, also influenced demand and pricing dynamics in certain years.
Over the five years to 2025, the average annual growth rate for fertilizer prices stands at 6.3%. This volatility highlights the industry's pronounced sensitivity to input cost fluctuations, particularly in energy markets, as well as exposure to global geopolitical and supply chain events.
The price of fertilizer is forecast to decline marginally by 0.3% in 2026, reaching an index valu...
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