Business Environment Profiles - United States
Published: 14 April 2025
Price of fruit
175 Index
4.7 %
The price of fruit represents the prices received by farmers for their fresh fruits and melons. Annual figures presented in this report are equally weighted averages of monthly means. Data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with forecast growth rates sourced from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
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After financial markets crashed in late 2008 and the unemployment rate soared, per capita disposable income fell, forcing consumers to cut back on their consumption of most goods. Fresh fruit is a luxury good compared to cheap processed foods and as a result, demand for fruit slipped, causing the average price to fall 10.2% over 2009. The economy stabilized over 2010, causing consumers to increase their demand for fruit, causing prices to rise. In addition, adverse weather during the year's first quarter forced prices up. The resulting 12.2% increase caused the price of fruit to return to its prerecession high.
Prices eased down slightly over 2011, as the economy struggled to return to robust growth. In 2012, slight growth in demand, coupled with a drought across the Midwest and Great Plains regions, boosted the price of fruit 1.1%. Prices then increased at steady rates, at 1.8% and 2.7% in 2013 and 2014, respectively.
According to the USDA, the price of fruit index spiked in 2016 due to a large drop in apple and strawberry harvests. In 2016, the supply of large-size fruit declined, partly because of above-average temperatures and dry conditions in some states. For example, Washington State had poor climatic conditions, resulting in high apple prices from late 2015 through 2016. At the same time, demand for some fruit (e.g. strawberries) outpaced supply, because of adverse weather conditions hampering harvest yields in Florida and California. However, California harvest yields picked up in the 2016-2017 season, alleviating the demand exceeding supply, causing fruit prices to increase at a slower pace. In 2018, the price of fruit declined slightly amid a slight increase in supply. This drop is forecast to continue through 2019 before increasing in 2020, with growth accelerating in 2021 due to supply chain disruptions and shortages from the pandemic. Fruit prices rose 18.0% in 2022 as producers struggled to meet demand. Consumers changing their eating habits due to the coronavirus pandemic caused an increase in demand for fresh produce, including fruit. Also, the conflict in Ukraine is estimated to raise the index price. Constrained supply chains for fruits, as well as recent natural disasters, have driven the sharp increase in the price of fruit index in 2022. In 2023, avocado prices rebounded from their 2022 levels. In 2023, avocado prices rebounded from their 2022 levels. In 2024, because of major hurricanes, the reliance on fruit imports from countries like Peru and Mexico increased, as these imports helped stabilize domestic market prices. By 2025, prices will expand by 2.3% because of imposed tariffs on fruit imports from areas like Peru and Guatemala, caused by the U.S. administration's 10.0% tariff on almost all global imports. However, imports from Mexico and Canada are exempt from these tariffs because the USMCA agreement ensures that fruits sourced from these countries meet the agreement's rule of origin and remain tariff-free.
The price of fruit is forecast to increase. However, there is a large amount of uncertainty regar...
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