Price of nonferrous metals

The price of nonferrous metals is expected to reach 341.3 on the index in 2025, indicating a marginal decrease of 0.3% compared with the previous year. This slight weakening follows a year marked by considerable volatility and stems from several converging macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Construction activity, a primary demand driver for nonferrous metals such as aluminum, copper, and zinc, continues to lose momentum as certain building markets soften. Supply chain and pricing pressures have remained prominent, influenced by US tariffs on critical minerals from China and ongoing instability in key mining countries. Potential deregulatory executive orders offer some relief for domestic producers but face uncertain legal prospects.

The price of nonferrous metals experienced substantial volatility between 2020 and 2025, reflecting shifts in global demand, energy costs, trade policy, and international events. A significant price surge occurred in 2021, when the index rose by 24.4%, driven by pent-up demand following the pandemic recession. Industrial consumption rebounded as COVID-19 restrictions lifted and economies reopened, straining global production capacity and elevating prices. Energy prices experienced high volatility in 2022, driven in part by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which supported a further price increase of 7.3%. The Biden Administration's removal of some metal tariffs that year offered only partial relief as supply chain disruptions persisted.

Nonferrous metal prices declined by 4.2% in 2023 as public investments in infrastructure and advanced manufacturing, from legislation such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, improved domestic supply conditions and energy inputs, fostering slight cost reductions. However, any downward pressure on prices was reversed in 2024 following newly implemented tariffs on Chinese minerals and heightened geopolitical instability in Burma, an important rare earth source, culminating in a 4.3% price increase. Throughout the period, nonferrous metal prices were further influenced by underlying inflation, persistent supply chain concerns, and evolving energy market conditions, all of which contributed to frequent price swings.

The combined effect of global disruptions, policy changes, and demand shifts led to an average annual price growth of 5.9% from 2020 to 2025. Macroeconomic forces, such as shifts in global construction and manufacturing activity, volatile energy prices, and trade policy adjustments, were fundamental to shaping the pricing environment for nonferrous metals. The sector's ongoing integration within international markets ensures domestic prices reflect global supply-demand imbalances and political developments, underscoring the driver's sensitivity to both economic output and geopolitical events.